In backtest, only 15% of 0x8b4b…541b's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:01 UTC.
Only 15% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 9% only partly; the +$1,067 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x8b4b…541b's 1,294 buys across 102 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$1,067. The leader lost $832.35 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$2,085, slippage $2.39 and fees $183.67. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $14,727 at once across 309 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 936 estimated: 204 high · 597 medium · 135 low · 157 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$248.13; 1 min: +$451.39; 5 min: +$1,067; 30 min: +$3,942. Max drawdown −$2,738 (5 min, Oct 10). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | +$7.27 | +$7.27 | +$7.94 | +$10.71 |
| Sep 23 | +$7.27 | +$7.27 | +$7.94 | +$40.06 |
| Sep 24 | +$7.27 | +$7.27 | +$7.94 | +$40.06 |
| Sep 25 | +$7.27 | +$7.27 | +$7.94 | +$40.06 |
| Sep 26 | +$11.44 | +$12.21 | +$12.88 | +$43.45 |
| Sep 27 | +$12.96 | +$13.72 | +$14.40 | +$43.08 |
| Sep 28 | +$13.33 | +$14.10 | +$14.77 | +$43.08 |
| Sep 29 | +$13.33 | +$14.10 | +$14.77 | +$43.08 |
| Sep 30 | +$13.34 | +$14.25 | +$15.14 | +$44.19 |
| Oct 1 | +$13.51 | +$14.25 | +$15.14 | +$44.19 |
| Oct 2 | +$13.51 | +$14.25 | +$15.14 | +$44.19 |
| Oct 3 | +$27.23 | +$26.78 | +$19.54 | +$47.48 |
| Oct 4 | +$27.41 | +$26.83 | +$22.34 | +$47.48 |
| Oct 5 | −$489.16 | −$536.42 | −$577.51 | −$426.62 |
| Oct 6 | +$17.86 | +$149.42 | −$550.60 | +$1,324 |
| Oct 7 | −$596.35 | −$527.08 | −$1,147 | +$208.24 |
| Oct 8 | −$1,142 | −$963.75 | −$1,572 | −$333.47 |
| Oct 9 | −$1,422 | −$1,262 | −$1,902 | −$490.93 |
| Oct 10 | −$1,813 | −$1,617 | −$2,196 | −$1,344 |
| Oct 11 | −$1,813 | −$1,617 | −$2,196 | −$1,344 |
| Oct 12 | −$1,767 | −$1,571 | −$2,146 | −$1,323 |
| Oct 13 | +$84.35 | +$818.56 | +$1,267 | +$2,824 |
| Oct 14 | +$801.58 | +$1,062 | +$1,535 | +$4,678 |
| Oct 15 | +$529.71 | +$784.71 | +$1,261 | +$4,403 |
| Oct 16 | +$295.51 | +$602.47 | +$1,203 | +$4,082 |
| Oct 17 | +$243.09 | +$548.84 | +$1,150 | +$4,056 |
| Oct 18 | +$243.74 | +$549.49 | +$1,152 | +$4,056 |
| Oct 19 | +$243.74 | +$549.49 | +$1,152 | +$4,059 |
| Oct 20 | +$242.98 | +$548.71 | +$1,151 | +$4,059 |
| Oct 21 | +$242.16 | +$547.89 | +$1,150 | +$4,058 |
| Oct 22 | +$287.06 | +$507.02 | +$1,163 | +$4,067 |
| Oct 23 | +$151.73 | +$377.86 | +$999.60 | +$3,878 |
| Oct 24 | +$164.73 | +$390.60 | +$1,011 | +$3,888 |
| Oct 25 | +$248.13 | +$451.39 | +$1,067 | +$3,942 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$248.13 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 17% |
| 1 min | +$451.39 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 16% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$1,067 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 15% |
| 30 min | +$3,942 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 12% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$832.35
- Delay helped+$2,085
- Slippage−$2.39
- Fees (buys $150.10 · sells $33.57)−$183.67
- Follower PnL+$1,067
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 690 | +$750.02 | +4.8% |
| Crypto | 532 | +$93.53 | +3.1% |
| Sports | 55 | +$210.18 | +5.7% |
| Geopolitics | 13 | +$2.38 | +0.7% |
| Culture | 4 | +$10.58 | +7.1% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9c9f…e2d2Leader lost money at this size
- 0xd950…ad1bKeeps −1137% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x000d…758eLeader lost money at this size
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.