In backtest, only 18% of 0x996a…e3cc's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:19 UTC.
Only 18% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 4% only partly; the +$851.55 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x996a…e3cc's 1,674 buys across 234 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 92% of the leader's returns: +$851.55 against +$930.49 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 18% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is the delay helped by +$146.55, slippage helped by +$13.45 and fees $238.94. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $3,506 at once across 360 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 765 estimated: 159 high · 558 medium · 48 low · 606 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$359.98; 1 min: +$547.88; 5 min: +$851.55; 30 min: +$311.71. Max drawdown −$357.77 (5 min, Oct 17). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | +$33.63 | +$33.42 | +$39.32 | +$37.97 |
| Sep 23 | +$33.63 | +$33.42 | +$39.32 | +$37.97 |
| Sep 24 | +$54.05 | +$50.47 | +$66.07 | +$46.51 |
| Sep 25 | +$62.41 | +$57.10 | +$69.66 | +$47.56 |
| Sep 26 | +$74.38 | +$69.22 | +$79.55 | +$76.50 |
| Sep 27 | +$74.38 | +$69.22 | +$79.55 | +$76.50 |
| Sep 28 | +$74.38 | +$69.22 | +$79.55 | +$76.50 |
| Sep 29 | +$147.74 | +$132.73 | +$135.93 | +$119.37 |
| Sep 30 | +$155.64 | +$140.09 | +$143.63 | +$123.21 |
| Oct 1 | +$146.63 | +$129.91 | +$134.45 | +$55.74 |
| Oct 2 | +$108.00 | +$108.90 | +$65.42 | +$56.63 |
| Oct 3 | +$96.83 | +$98.40 | −$35.58 | +$59.80 |
| Oct 4 | +$83.72 | +$73.77 | −$64.06 | +$31.32 |
| Oct 5 | +$9.92 | +$0.03 | −$68.84 | +$31.32 |
| Oct 6 | +$21.99 | +$12.58 | −$57.99 | +$33.13 |
| Oct 7 | +$49.62 | +$45.01 | −$18.05 | +$71.60 |
| Oct 8 | +$49.62 | +$45.01 | −$18.05 | +$71.60 |
| Oct 9 | +$169.97 | +$297.89 | +$218.55 | +$119.37 |
| Oct 10 | +$209.15 | +$351.09 | +$286.35 | +$204.71 |
| Oct 11 | +$107.51 | +$275.38 | +$222.15 | +$41.53 |
| Oct 12 | +$126.74 | +$290.57 | +$238.30 | +$41.84 |
| Oct 13 | +$35.76 | +$196.46 | +$246.43 | +$55.91 |
| Oct 14 | +$35.81 | +$196.22 | +$246.43 | +$82.93 |
| Oct 15 | +$50.97 | +$199.27 | +$249.45 | +$86.42 |
| Oct 16 | −$160.74 | +$11.47 | +$40.98 | −$151.28 |
| Oct 17 | −$115.63 | +$59.10 | +$157.51 | −$95.72 |
| Oct 18 | +$94.86 | +$291.53 | +$616.88 | +$108.43 |
| Oct 19 | +$94.54 | +$303.06 | +$614.96 | +$107.96 |
| Oct 20 | +$145.13 | +$347.31 | +$640.25 | +$86.82 |
| Oct 21 | +$196.47 | +$388.40 | +$684.39 | +$99.11 |
| Oct 22 | +$204.69 | +$396.53 | +$692.97 | +$104.28 |
| Oct 23 | +$248.20 | +$452.85 | +$711.98 | +$115.46 |
| Oct 24 | +$334.97 | +$495.96 | +$787.89 | +$87.95 |
| Oct 25 | +$397.39 | +$585.29 | +$888.32 | +$311.71 |
| Oct 26 | +$359.98 | +$547.88 | +$851.55 | +$311.71 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$359.98 | 38.7% | 23% |
| 1 min | +$547.88 | 58.9% | 20% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$851.55 | 91.5% | 18% |
| 30 min | +$311.71 | 33.5% | 11% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$930.49
- Delay helped+$146.55
- Slippage helped+$13.45
- Fees (buys $169.15 · sells $69.79)−$238.94
- Follower PnL+$851.55
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1,494 | +$780.05 | +2.8% |
| Politics | 167 | +$66.58 | +1.6% |
| Culture | 5 | +$4.57 | +9.7% |
| Crypto | 4 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Finance | 3 | −$0.04 | −0.1% |
| Geopolitics | 1 | +$0.39 | +0.4% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x677d…4907Keeps 58% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xc6be…a0f3Keeps 53% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xd84d…cc32Keeps 39% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.