0xa2f4…6d95 lost money, yet a simulated copy at a 5-minute delay ended $87.42 up
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0xa2f4…6d95's 161 buys across 158 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$87.42. The leader lost $6.78 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$611.30, slippage $230.45 and fees $286.65. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $1,157 at once across 144 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 46 estimated: 24 high · 19 medium · 3 low · 8 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$102.03; 1 min: −$49.47; 5 min: +$87.42; 30 min: +$2,033. Max drawdown −$1,615 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | +$206.89 | +$168.02 | +$92.95 | +$504.26 |
| Sep 25 | +$253.48 | +$214.61 | +$140.55 | +$450.12 |
| Sep 26 | +$379.70 | +$340.83 | +$266.77 | +$572.66 |
| Sep 27 | +$550.95 | +$513.28 | +$451.11 | +$649.08 |
| Sep 28 | +$720.57 | +$582.69 | +$470.53 | +$550.78 |
| Sep 29 | +$701.19 | +$563.32 | +$432.16 | +$719.02 |
| Sep 30 | +$757.75 | +$616.85 | +$446.74 | +$719.10 |
| Oct 1 | +$757.75 | +$616.85 | +$446.74 | +$719.10 |
| Oct 2 | +$381.53 | +$248.31 | +$86.36 | +$670.15 |
| Oct 3 | +$381.53 | +$248.31 | +$86.36 | +$670.15 |
| Oct 4 | +$176.93 | +$43.59 | −$118.51 | +$466.60 |
| Oct 5 | +$176.93 | +$43.59 | −$118.51 | +$466.60 |
| Oct 6 | +$282.66 | +$149.33 | −$98.13 | +$530.47 |
| Oct 7 | +$282.66 | +$149.33 | −$98.13 | +$530.47 |
| Oct 8 | +$282.66 | +$149.33 | −$98.13 | +$530.47 |
| Oct 9 | +$282.66 | +$149.33 | −$98.13 | +$530.47 |
| Oct 10 | +$385.86 | +$248.43 | +$98.24 | +$850.26 |
| Oct 11 | +$262.14 | +$124.71 | −$34.11 | +$719.89 |
| Oct 12 | +$262.14 | +$124.71 | −$34.11 | +$719.89 |
| Oct 13 | +$416.32 | +$279.04 | +$812.95 | +$1,660 |
| Oct 14 | +$894.58 | +$759.66 | +$1,351 | +$2,353 |
| Oct 15 | +$467.34 | +$366.75 | +$938.19 | +$1,960 |
| Oct 16 | +$467.34 | +$366.75 | +$938.19 | +$1,960 |
| Oct 17 | +$626.40 | +$546.75 | +$990.30 | +$2,794 |
| Oct 18 | +$697.25 | +$613.39 | +$1,059 | +$2,906 |
| Oct 19 | +$726.65 | +$642.79 | +$1,059 | +$2,906 |
| Oct 20 | +$612.37 | +$524.56 | +$827.86 | +$2,707 |
| Oct 21 | +$407.17 | +$302.59 | +$511.88 | +$2,445 |
| Oct 22 | +$272.30 | +$153.12 | +$343.49 | +$2,309 |
| Oct 23 | +$218.58 | +$76.27 | +$191.55 | +$2,213 |
| Oct 24 | +$59.43 | −$82.97 | +$33.10 | +$2,149 |
| Oct 25 | +$102.03 | −$49.47 | +$87.42 | +$2,033 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$102.03 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 59% |
| 1 min | −$49.47 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 61% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$87.42 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 60% |
| 30 min | +$2,033 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 63% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$6.78
- Delay helped+$611.30
- Slippage−$230.45
- Fees (buys $286.65 · sells $0.00)−$286.65
- Follower PnL+$87.42
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 161 | +$87.42 | +0.8% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe53c…e569Keeps 22% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5ca7…d0c4Leader lost money at this size
- 0xa0c5…e717Leader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.