In backtest, only 31% of 0xa309…4cf2's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 31% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 6% only partly; the −$2,416 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xa309…4cf2's 176 buys across 39 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$2,416. The leader lost $2,991 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$695.32, slippage $1.54 and fees $119.21. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $2,491 at once across 66 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 99 estimated: 20 high · 61 medium · 18 low · 20 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$2,825; 1 min: −$2,580; 5 min: −$2,416; 30 min: −$4,459. Max drawdown −$3,144 (5 min, Sep 29). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$0.96 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 22 | −$1.92 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 23 | −$1.92 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 24 | −$497.69 | −$497.76 | −$501.95 | −$504.20 |
| Sep 25 | −$599.24 | −$599.31 | −$603.55 | −$605.12 |
| Sep 26 | −$599.24 | −$599.31 | −$603.55 | −$605.12 |
| Sep 27 | −$599.24 | −$599.31 | −$603.55 | −$605.12 |
| Sep 28 | −$3,063 | −$3,049 | −$3,036 | −$3,198 |
| Sep 29 | −$3,165 | −$3,151 | −$3,138 | −$3,301 |
| Sep 30 | −$3,165 | −$3,151 | −$3,138 | −$3,301 |
| Oct 1 | −$2,301 | −$2,173 | −$1,957 | −$2,902 |
| Oct 2 | −$2,301 | −$2,173 | −$1,957 | −$2,902 |
| Oct 3 | −$2,301 | −$2,173 | −$1,957 | −$2,902 |
| Oct 4 | −$2,478 | −$2,356 | −$2,140 | −$3,030 |
| Oct 5 | −$2,874 | −$2,691 | −$2,450 | −$3,514 |
| Oct 6 | −$2,694 | −$2,511 | −$2,294 | −$3,438 |
| Oct 7 | −$2,694 | −$2,511 | −$2,294 | −$3,438 |
| Oct 8 | −$2,694 | −$2,511 | −$2,294 | −$3,438 |
| Oct 9 | −$2,694 | −$2,511 | −$2,294 | −$3,501 |
| Oct 10 | −$2,694 | −$2,511 | −$2,294 | −$3,501 |
| Oct 11 | −$2,694 | −$2,511 | −$2,294 | −$3,501 |
| Oct 12 | −$2,694 | −$2,511 | −$2,294 | −$3,501 |
| Oct 13 | −$2,694 | −$2,511 | −$2,294 | −$3,501 |
| Oct 14 | −$2,694 | −$2,511 | −$2,294 | −$3,501 |
| Oct 15 | −$2,697 | −$2,513 | −$2,295 | −$4,455 |
| Oct 16 | −$2,825 | −$2,580 | −$2,416 | −$4,459 |
| Oct 17 | −$2,825 | −$2,580 | −$2,416 | −$4,459 |
| Oct 18 | −$2,825 | −$2,580 | −$2,416 | −$4,459 |
| Oct 19 | −$2,825 | −$2,580 | −$2,416 | −$4,459 |
| Oct 20 | −$2,825 | −$2,580 | −$2,416 | −$4,459 |
| Oct 21 | −$2,825 | −$2,580 | −$2,416 | −$4,459 |
| Oct 22 | −$2,825 | −$2,580 | −$2,416 | −$4,459 |
| Oct 23 | −$2,825 | −$2,580 | −$2,416 | −$4,459 |
| Oct 24 | −$2,825 | −$2,580 | −$2,416 | −$4,459 |
| Oct 25 | −$2,825 | −$2,580 | −$2,416 | −$4,459 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$2,825 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 30% |
| 1 min | −$2,580 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 31% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$2,416 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 31% |
| 30 min | −$4,459 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 30% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$2,991
- Delay helped+$695.32
- Slippage−$1.54
- Fees (buys $119.21 · sells $0.00)−$119.21
- Follower PnL−$2,416
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 141 | −$1,915 | −37.4% |
| Politics | 35 | −$501.19 | −68.3% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xcbc5…e175Leader lost money at this size
- 0xe831…a42aLeader lost money at this size
- 0xfea3…d227Leader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.