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In backtest, only 27% of 0xfea3…d227's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Sports 0xfea31bc088000ff909be1dfd8d0e3f2c7ef2d227 Profile on Polymarket

Provisional4 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:07 UTC.

Only 27% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 8% only partly; the −$23,761 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xfea3…d227's 3,826 buys across 701 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$23,761. The leader lost $12,880 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $9,082, slippage helped by +$19.29 and fees $1,818. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $24,562 at once across 1,333 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$23,761
Incl. estimates −$40,652
Max drawdown −$34,000
ROI −21.6% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$12,880
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$24,562
Incl. estimates $171,355
3,822 copied buys · $110,212 total cost
Fill rate
27%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 76%
1,032 filled · 301 partial · 2,489 no buyers · 4 pending
Backtest score
22/100
3,826 buys · 701 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 2,181 estimated: 844 high · 1,052 medium · 285 low · 586 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$34k

Final values: 0 min: −$18,682; 1 min: −$19,363; 5 min: −$23,761; 30 min: −$27,216. Max drawdown −$34,000 (5 min, Oct 16). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21−$194.62−$175.78−$353.69−$53.70
Sep 22−$195.83−$181.17−$359.09+$20.77
Sep 23−$271.26−$230.41−$394.52−$29.92
Sep 24−$45.01−$80.30−$434.55−$132.63
Sep 25−$330.96−$356.02−$582.59−$554.95
Sep 26−$377.50−$259.44−$431.44−$537.60
Sep 27+$211.76+$370.40+$248.33+$362.40
Sep 28+$179.09+$426.87+$253.58+$2,123
Sep 29−$940.08−$623.07−$933.39+$1,601
Sep 30−$1,040−$649.28−$928.07+$1,590
Oct 1−$1,059−$624.20−$926.93+$1,584
Oct 2−$1,091−$620.36−$888.40+$1,589
Oct 3−$1,096−$623.14−$888.40+$1,587
Oct 4−$1,413−$897.38−$1,288+$1,258
Oct 5−$2,127−$1,608−$1,962+$304.22
Oct 6−$2,621−$2,116−$2,578−$137.36
Oct 7−$2,626−$2,118−$2,578−$137.36
Oct 8−$13,171−$12,540−$13,180−$13,071
Oct 9−$16,604−$15,973−$16,612−$16,694
Oct 10−$16,054−$15,488−$16,149−$16,429
Oct 11−$18,863−$18,221−$18,909−$17,269
Oct 12−$18,203−$17,419−$17,821−$17,269
Oct 13−$18,617−$17,832−$18,235−$17,477
Oct 14−$27,626−$28,527−$32,716−$34,758
Oct 15−$28,362−$29,246−$33,435−$35,783
Oct 16−$28,333−$29,208−$33,438−$35,720
Oct 17−$26,920−$27,779−$31,784−$34,248
Oct 18−$28,669−$29,227−$33,200−$35,557
Oct 19−$27,992−$28,628−$32,635−$34,247
Oct 20−$26,929−$27,565−$31,608−$33,922
Oct 21−$27,661−$28,268−$32,216−$34,428
Oct 22−$19,850−$20,460−$24,790−$26,996
Oct 23−$18,162−$18,801−$23,040−$25,601
Oct 24−$17,914−$18,562−$22,957−$26,257
Oct 25−$18,673−$19,351−$23,750−$27,203
Oct 26−$18,682−$19,363−$23,761−$27,216

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$18,682n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)28%
1 min−$19,363n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)27%
5 min (selected)−$23,761n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)27%
30 min−$27,216n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)28%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$12,880
  2. Delay cost−$9,082
  3. Slippage helped+$19.29
  4. Fees (buys $1,774 · sells $44.74)−$1,818
  5. Follower PnL−$23,761

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Sports2,367−$23,389−27.1%
Politics1,455−$371.95−1.6%

Data version 12075 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 2,165 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
Page 1

More Sports traders

See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.