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In backtest, only 23% of 0xb100…6461's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0xb10047d6a254b2ebb306d7a7d13bf59171ab6461 Profile on Polymarket

Only 23% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 16% only partly; the −$8,300 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xb100…6461's 1,679 buys across 219 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$8,300. The leader lost $3,306 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $4,453, slippage helped by +$85.95 and fees $626.91. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $19,040 at once across 649 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$8,300
Incl. estimates −$8,307
Max drawdown −$9,483
ROI −19.0% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$3,306
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$19,040
Incl. estimates $79,074
1,679 copied buys · $43,624 total cost
Fill rate
23%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 70%
385 filled · 264 partial · 1,030 no buyers
Backtest score
21/100
1,679 buys · 219 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 997 estimated: 172 high · 628 medium · 197 low · 272 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$9.5k

Final values: 0 min: −$7,551; 1 min: −$6,322; 5 min: −$8,300; 30 min: −$7,088. Max drawdown −$9,483 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21+$35.46+$5.64+$2.61+$57.93
Sep 22−$2,416−$2,273−$2,255−$2,275
Sep 23−$3,723−$3,469−$3,210−$2,835
Sep 24−$3,768−$3,501−$3,226−$2,835
Sep 25−$3,768−$3,501−$3,226−$2,835
Sep 26−$4,001−$3,590−$3,419−$2,987
Sep 27−$4,002−$3,579−$3,408−$2,980
Sep 28−$4,080−$3,596−$3,411−$3,065
Sep 29−$4,157−$3,585−$3,633−$3,360
Sep 30−$4,269−$3,623−$3,693−$3,448
Oct 1−$4,260−$3,634−$3,691−$3,498
Oct 2−$4,273−$3,635−$3,699−$3,497
Oct 3−$4,521−$3,822−$3,818−$3,592
Oct 4−$4,470−$3,781−$3,798−$3,635
Oct 5−$4,742−$3,990−$3,952−$3,724
Oct 6−$4,799−$4,039−$3,917−$3,830
Oct 7−$4,930−$4,141−$4,067−$4,008
Oct 8−$4,564−$3,857−$3,510−$3,471
Oct 9−$3,983−$3,210−$3,185−$3,227
Oct 10−$3,986−$3,211−$3,185−$3,228
Oct 11−$4,044−$3,288−$3,220−$3,283
Oct 12−$4,088−$3,314−$3,308−$3,360
Oct 13−$4,088−$3,314−$3,308−$3,360
Oct 14−$4,054−$3,288−$3,284−$3,362
Oct 15−$4,017−$3,278−$3,277−$3,364
Oct 16−$3,547−$2,522−$4,363−$5,375
Oct 17−$3,228−$2,052−$3,815−$5,358
Oct 18−$3,203−$2,051−$3,525−$5,357
Oct 19−$3,199−$2,042−$3,523−$5,428
Oct 20−$3,212−$2,068−$3,538−$5,436
Oct 21−$3,217−$2,095−$3,534−$5,430
Oct 22−$3,340−$2,217−$3,689−$5,555
Oct 23−$5,103−$4,003−$5,473−$5,397
Oct 24−$7,807−$6,605−$8,742−$6,779
Oct 25−$7,555−$6,326−$8,302−$7,088
Oct 26−$7,551−$6,322−$8,300−$7,088

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$7,551n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)31%
1 min−$6,322n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)26%
5 min (selected)−$8,300n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)23%
30 min−$7,088n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)14%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$3,306
  2. Delay cost−$4,453
  3. Slippage helped+$85.95
  4. Fees (buys $569.41 · sells $57.50)−$626.91
  5. Follower PnL−$8,300

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics891−$1,417−7.4%
Sports436−$6,705−29.8%
Tech247−$180.84−9.5%
Culture47−$0.92−5.7%
Finance35−$0.61−0.8%
Geopolitics12+$4.26+5.7%
Crypto11$0.000.0%

Data version 12078 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 815 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.