In backtest, only 22% of 0xe25b…0f1b's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 22% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 10% only partly; the −$4,642 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xe25b…0f1b's 906 buys across 64 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$4,642. The leader lost $3,590 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $623.03, slippage helped by +$5.15 and fees $433.24. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $11,027 at once across 291 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 595 estimated: 352 high · 160 medium · 83 low · 100 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$3,757; 1 min: −$5,596; 5 min: −$4,642; 30 min: −$2,201. Max drawdown −$7,942 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | +$89.18 | +$8.23 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 26 | +$89.18 | +$8.23 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 27 | −$418.63 | −$508.74 | −$519.34 | −$629.86 |
| Sep 28 | −$623.23 | −$713.34 | −$723.94 | −$936.81 |
| Sep 29 | +$279.38 | +$199.84 | +$100.30 | +$43.87 |
| Sep 30 | −$2,375 | −$2,480 | −$1,780 | +$21.01 |
| Oct 1 | −$2,678 | −$2,783 | −$1,780 | +$21.01 |
| Oct 2 | −$2,039 | −$3,969 | −$2,907 | −$442.29 |
| Oct 3 | −$2,039 | −$3,969 | −$2,907 | −$442.29 |
| Oct 4 | −$2,039 | −$3,969 | −$2,907 | −$442.29 |
| Oct 5 | −$2,039 | −$3,969 | −$2,907 | −$442.29 |
| Oct 6 | −$1,929 | −$4,137 | −$3,008 | −$442.29 |
| Oct 7 | −$3,358 | −$5,567 | −$4,441 | −$1,887 |
| Oct 8 | −$3,358 | −$5,567 | −$4,441 | −$1,887 |
| Oct 9 | −$3,523 | −$5,719 | −$4,571 | −$2,107 |
| Oct 10 | −$3,284 | −$5,484 | −$4,292 | −$1,885 |
| Oct 11 | −$3,284 | −$5,484 | −$4,292 | −$1,885 |
| Oct 12 | −$3,224 | −$5,424 | −$4,167 | −$1,166 |
| Oct 13 | −$3,324 | −$5,528 | −$4,368 | −$1,416 |
| Oct 14 | −$3,329 | −$5,533 | −$4,373 | −$1,462 |
| Oct 15 | −$3,395 | −$5,599 | −$4,392 | −$1,566 |
| Oct 16 | −$3,567 | −$5,780 | −$4,576 | −$1,635 |
| Oct 17 | −$3,569 | −$5,782 | −$4,580 | −$1,645 |
| Oct 18 | −$3,884 | −$6,084 | −$4,947 | −$1,874 |
| Oct 19 | −$3,884 | −$6,084 | −$4,947 | −$1,874 |
| Oct 20 | −$3,975 | −$6,175 | −$5,141 | −$2,025 |
| Oct 21 | −$4,410 | −$6,596 | −$5,524 | −$2,341 |
| Oct 22 | −$4,415 | −$6,602 | −$5,542 | −$2,341 |
| Oct 23 | −$6,374 | −$8,432 | −$7,489 | −$3,888 |
| Oct 24 | −$6,483 | −$8,505 | −$7,526 | −$4,200 |
| Oct 25 | −$3,757 | −$5,596 | −$4,642 | −$2,201 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$3,757 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 25% |
| 1 min | −$5,596 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 23% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$4,642 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 22% |
| 30 min | −$2,201 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 22% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$3,590
- Delay cost−$623.03
- Slippage helped+$5.15
- Fees (buys $408.42 · sells $24.82)−$433.24
- Follower PnL−$4,642
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 511 | −$525.35 | −4.8% |
| Sports | 309 | −$2,062 | −24.4% |
| Tech | 62 | −$2,054 | −84.0% |
| Finance | 21 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Culture | 3 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe639…082aLeader lost money at this size
- 0xe738…df65Leader lost money at this size
- 0x71ca…3501Keeps −17% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.