In backtest, only 24% of 0xe639…082a's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional1 buy is too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after it isn't indexed yet, so it's left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:31 UTC.
Only 24% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 11% only partly; the −$145.71 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xe639…082a's 193 buys across 7 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$145.71. The leader lost $60.46 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $66.50, slippage $0.80 and fees $17.95. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $4,959 at once across 68 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 141 estimated: 73 high · 55 medium · 13 low · 5 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$139.85; 1 min: −$184.62; 5 min: −$145.71; 30 min: −$73.27. Max drawdown −$145.71 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 25 | −$44.05 | −$95.78 | −$76.09 | −$19.67 |
| Sep 26 | −$51.20 | −$102.05 | −$80.31 | −$19.67 |
| Sep 27 | −$51.20 | −$102.05 | −$80.31 | −$19.67 |
| Sep 28 | −$51.81 | −$102.34 | −$80.60 | −$19.80 |
| Sep 29 | −$51.81 | −$102.34 | −$80.60 | −$19.80 |
| Sep 30 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 1 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 2 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 3 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 4 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 5 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 6 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 7 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 8 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 9 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 10 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 11 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 12 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 13 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 14 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 15 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 16 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 17 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 18 | −$51.52 | −$102.05 | −$80.40 | −$19.80 |
| Oct 19 | −$60.60 | −$111.13 | −$82.35 | −$26.29 |
| Oct 20 | −$86.91 | −$131.54 | −$97.47 | −$37.42 |
| Oct 21 | −$86.91 | −$131.54 | −$97.47 | −$37.42 |
| Oct 22 | −$89.28 | −$135.95 | −$102.39 | −$10.42 |
| Oct 23 | −$89.28 | −$135.95 | −$102.39 | −$10.42 |
| Oct 24 | −$119.09 | −$164.73 | −$127.12 | −$55.42 |
| Oct 25 | −$139.85 | −$184.62 | −$145.71 | −$73.27 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$139.85 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 26% |
| 1 min | −$184.62 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 28% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$145.71 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 24% |
| 30 min | −$73.27 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 29% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$60.46
- Delay cost−$66.50
- Slippage−$0.80
- Fees (buys $16.75 · sells $1.20)−$17.95
- Follower PnL−$145.71
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 186 | −$145.71 | −2.8% |
| Tech | 6 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe738…df65Leader lost money at this size
- 0x71ca…3501Keeps −17% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x76db…6987Keeps −40% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.