In backtest, copying 0x47c8…86bc beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x47c8…86bc's 667 buys across 262 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$5,651 — more than the leader's +$3,743 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (151.0%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$2,607, slippage helped by +$120.80 and fees $820.39. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $3,513 at once across 416 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 290 estimated: 89 high · 167 medium · 34 low · 15 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$5,056; 1 min: +$5,652; 5 min: +$5,651; 30 min: +$8,808. Max drawdown −$2,360 (5 min, Oct 7). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | +$185.04 | +$140.11 | +$45.32 | +$21.78 |
| Sep 23 | +$185.04 | +$140.11 | +$45.32 | +$21.78 |
| Sep 24 | +$185.04 | +$140.11 | +$45.32 | +$21.78 |
| Sep 25 | +$170.14 | +$164.66 | +$78.57 | +$93.89 |
| Sep 26 | +$697.78 | +$707.53 | +$772.45 | +$201.86 |
| Sep 27 | +$692.73 | +$676.54 | +$1,171 | −$48.63 |
| Sep 28 | +$693.90 | +$688.33 | +$1,203 | −$35.92 |
| Sep 29 | +$967.12 | +$881.15 | +$1,382 | −$26.54 |
| Sep 30 | −$11.30 | −$181.61 | +$242.17 | +$110.57 |
| Oct 1 | +$72.83 | −$93.58 | +$216.00 | −$48.25 |
| Oct 2 | −$68.34 | −$232.24 | +$282.70 | +$172.81 |
| Oct 3 | +$234.88 | +$65.07 | +$516.95 | +$137.92 |
| Oct 4 | +$232.72 | +$60.71 | +$160.53 | −$51.52 |
| Oct 5 | +$520.49 | +$357.72 | +$544.37 | +$8.48 |
| Oct 6 | +$705.44 | +$563.87 | +$560.15 | −$35.50 |
| Oct 7 | −$486.92 | −$538.84 | −$625.93 | −$154.18 |
| Oct 8 | +$3,697 | +$3,749 | +$3,992 | +$1,330 |
| Oct 9 | +$4,139 | +$4,126 | +$4,601 | +$4,680 |
| Oct 10 | +$4,053 | +$4,127 | +$4,645 | +$4,638 |
| Oct 11 | +$4,263 | +$4,330 | +$4,884 | +$4,945 |
| Oct 12 | +$4,160 | +$4,260 | +$4,771 | +$5,005 |
| Oct 13 | +$4,093 | +$4,271 | +$5,063 | +$5,764 |
| Oct 14 | +$4,726 | +$5,024 | +$5,357 | +$5,911 |
| Oct 15 | +$4,641 | +$5,010 | +$5,283 | +$7,950 |
| Oct 16 | +$5,030 | +$5,386 | +$5,634 | +$8,024 |
| Oct 17 | +$5,520 | +$5,972 | +$5,837 | +$7,834 |
| Oct 18 | +$5,520 | +$5,972 | +$5,837 | +$7,834 |
| Oct 19 | +$5,332 | +$5,798 | +$5,663 | +$7,733 |
| Oct 20 | +$5,380 | +$5,794 | +$5,662 | +$7,742 |
| Oct 21 | +$5,425 | +$5,886 | +$5,705 | +$7,736 |
| Oct 22 | +$4,540 | +$4,947 | +$4,747 | +$7,061 |
| Oct 23 | +$4,540 | +$4,947 | +$4,747 | +$7,061 |
| Oct 24 | +$4,511 | +$4,997 | +$4,859 | +$7,969 |
| Oct 25 | +$5,056 | +$5,652 | +$5,651 | +$8,808 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$5,056 | 100%+ (Exactly 135.1%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 55% |
| 1 min | +$5,652 | 100%+ (Exactly 151.0%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 55% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$5,651 | 100%+ (Exactly 151.0%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 54% |
| 30 min | +$8,808 | 100%+ (Exactly 235.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 29% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$3,743
- Delay helped+$2,607
- Slippage helped+$120.80
- Fees (buys $813.48 · sells $6.91)−$820.39
- Follower PnL+$5,651
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 667 | +$5,651 | +15.1% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x615b…9591Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xcdcc…935aKeeps 85% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xd20f…2f35Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.