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In backtest, only 19% of 0xd3a7…3362's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0xd3a72382f2c459af33a839866b3f2852e4723362 Profile on Polymarket

Provisional5 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:05 UTC.

Only 19% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 14% only partly; the −$5,077 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xd3a7…3362's 4,344 buys across 18 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$5,077. The leader lost $1,005 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $490.83, slippage helped by +$64.93 and fees $3,646. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $14,674 at once across 1,435 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$5,077
Incl. estimates −$2,768
Max drawdown −$8,809
ROI −5.2% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$1,005
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$14,674
Incl. estimates $117,868
4,339 copied buys · $97,652 total cost
Fill rate
19%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 80%
834 filled · 601 partial · 2,904 no buyers · 5 pending
Backtest score
20/100
4,344 buys · 18 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 2,950 estimated: 1,411 high · 1,232 medium · 307 low · 509 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$8.8k

Final values: 0 min: −$3,376; 1 min: −$890.87; 5 min: −$5,077; 30 min: +$2,850. Max drawdown −$8,809 (5 min, Oct 21). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21−$33.90+$9.11+$38.18+$30.97
Sep 22−$69.59+$52.35+$69.36−$37.97
Sep 23−$71.74+$51.64+$66.98−$54.33
Sep 24−$416.77−$208.95−$23.91−$170.94
Sep 25−$422.55−$231.61−$47.33−$291.74
Sep 26−$480.53−$308.36+$80.48−$241.94
Sep 27−$510.66−$330.09+$68.66−$304.25
Sep 28−$564.23−$356.20+$118.58−$363.20
Sep 29−$566.61−$191.32+$122.00−$120.29
Sep 30−$550.06−$52.82+$81.03−$65.19
Oct 1−$671.34−$132.81−$58.19−$230.42
Oct 2−$761.04−$206.12−$112.23−$329.81
Oct 3−$897.93−$332.10−$311.88−$460.70
Oct 4−$2,810−$2,425−$3,771−$1,451
Oct 5−$3,208−$2,910−$4,346−$1,663
Oct 6−$3,234−$2,938−$4,395−$1,664
Oct 7−$3,537−$3,300−$4,904−$1,688
Oct 8−$3,609−$3,375−$4,975−$1,714
Oct 9−$3,628−$3,385−$4,969−$1,730
Oct 10−$3,647−$3,397−$5,002−$1,736
Oct 11−$3,720−$3,452−$5,093−$1,763
Oct 12−$3,920−$3,663−$5,307−$1,840
Oct 13−$3,956−$3,688−$5,317−$1,807
Oct 14−$4,102−$3,791−$5,351−$1,546
Oct 15−$4,820−$4,435−$6,137−$1,914
Oct 16−$4,911−$4,533−$6,248−$2,001
Oct 17−$5,078−$4,700−$6,374−$2,257
Oct 18−$5,241−$4,866−$6,547−$2,452
Oct 19−$5,423−$5,058−$6,825−$2,658
Oct 20−$5,674−$5,343−$7,044−$2,895
Oct 21−$6,122−$4,019−$8,393−$2,791
Oct 22−$3,208−$690.25−$4,783+$2,987
Oct 23−$3,176−$676.05−$4,889+$2,918
Oct 24−$3,241−$745.99−$4,942+$2,882
Oct 25−$3,364−$885.26−$5,075+$2,860
Oct 26−$3,376−$890.87−$5,077+$2,850

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$3,376n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)20%
1 min−$890.87n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)19%
5 min (selected)−$5,077n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)19%
30 min+$2,850n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)18%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$1,005
  2. Delay cost−$490.83
  3. Slippage helped+$64.93
  4. Fees (buys $2,042 · sells $1,604)−$3,646
  5. Follower PnL−$5,077

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics4,302−$2,988−3.1%
Sports37−$2,089−96.2%

Data version 12073 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 475 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
Page 1

More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.