In backtest, copying 0xd20f…2f35 beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0xd20f…2f35's 302 buys across 35 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$5,158 — more than the leader's +$3,423 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (150.7%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$2,010, slippage $42.79 and fees $231.62. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $4,284 at once across 165 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 115 estimated: 6 high · 93 medium · 16 low · 24 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$4,970; 1 min: +$4,090; 5 min: +$5,158; 30 min: −$277.27. Max drawdown −$1,135 (5 min, Sep 21). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$3,503 | +$2,833 | +$4,231 | −$192.32 |
| Sep 22 | +$4,285 | +$3,533 | +$5,123 | −$192.32 |
| Sep 23 | +$4,285 | +$3,533 | +$5,123 | −$192.32 |
| Sep 24 | +$4,285 | +$3,533 | +$5,123 | −$192.32 |
| Sep 25 | +$4,285 | +$3,533 | +$5,123 | −$192.32 |
| Sep 26 | +$4,285 | +$3,533 | +$5,123 | −$192.32 |
| Sep 27 | +$4,901 | +$3,970 | +$5,145 | −$277.27 |
| Sep 28 | +$4,965 | +$4,048 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Sep 29 | +$4,965 | +$4,048 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Sep 30 | +$4,965 | +$4,048 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Oct 1 | +$4,965 | +$4,048 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Oct 2 | +$4,965 | +$4,048 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Oct 3 | +$4,965 | +$4,048 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Oct 4 | +$4,965 | +$4,048 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Oct 5 | +$4,965 | +$4,048 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Oct 6 | +$4,965 | +$4,048 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Oct 7 | +$4,965 | +$4,048 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Oct 8 | +$4,965 | +$4,048 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Oct 9 | +$4,965 | +$4,048 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Oct 10 | +$4,965 | +$4,048 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Oct 11 | +$4,965 | +$4,048 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Oct 12 | +$4,904 | +$4,046 | +$5,146 | −$277.27 |
| Oct 13 | +$4,970 | +$4,090 | +$5,158 | −$277.27 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$4,970 | 100%+ (Exactly 145.2%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 95% |
| 1 min | +$4,090 | 100%+ (Exactly 119.5%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 89% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$5,158 | 100%+ (Exactly 150.7%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 54% |
| 30 min | −$277.27 | −8.1% | 4% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$3,423
- Delay helped+$2,010
- Slippage−$42.79
- Fees (buys $224.57 · sells $7.05)−$231.62
- Follower PnL+$5,158
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 302 | +$5,158 | +31.5% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
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See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.