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In backtest, only 39% of 0xe23c…5ae7's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Sports 0xe23cd5fb6bee7b1c9f60f5d9969ac7ba52cc5ae7 Profile on Polymarket

Provisional5 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:32 UTC.

Only 39% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 12% only partly; the +$5,424 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xe23c…5ae7's 1,026 buys across 348 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$5,424 — more than the leader's +$1,163 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (466.6%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$5,899, slippage $84.69 and fees $1,552. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $2,200 at once across 521 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
+$5,424
Incl. estimates −$16,915
Max drawdown −$3,508
ROI +12.5% on total cost
Returns kept
100%+ (Exactly 466.6%: the simulated copy did better than the leader)
Leader, same size +$1,163
beat the leader · 466.6%
Peak capital in use
$2,200
Incl. estimates $2,200
1,021 copied buys · $43,242 total cost
Fill rate
39%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 73%
395 filled · 126 partial · 500 no buyers · 5 pending
Backtest score
85/100
1,026 buys · 348 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 449 estimated: 344 high · 68 medium · 37 low · 169 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$3.5k

Final values: 0 min: +$6,839; 1 min: +$104.74; 5 min: +$5,424; 30 min: −$4,703. Max drawdown −$3,508 (5 min, Oct 24). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21−$620.64−$252.81+$165.29−$151.55
Sep 22−$641.57−$248.08+$165.29−$151.55
Sep 23−$641.57−$248.08+$165.29−$151.55
Sep 24−$641.57−$248.08+$165.29−$151.55
Sep 25−$641.57−$248.08+$165.29−$151.55
Sep 26−$641.57−$248.08+$165.29−$151.55
Sep 27−$641.57−$248.08+$165.29−$151.55
Sep 28−$641.57−$248.08+$165.29−$151.55
Sep 29−$641.57−$248.08+$165.29−$151.55
Sep 30−$641.57−$248.08+$165.29−$151.55
Oct 1−$561.54−$139.98+$295.63−$196.94
Oct 2−$467.80−$39.53+$417.67−$156.22
Oct 3−$467.80−$39.53+$417.67−$156.22
Oct 4−$1,117−$567.47−$159.23−$797.67
Oct 5−$1,875−$1,121−$558.99−$1,269
Oct 6−$1,665−$1,259−$642.86−$1,440
Oct 7−$1,428−$1,043−$439.43−$1,428
Oct 8−$1,591−$1,206−$612.84−$1,438
Oct 9−$1,426−$928.22−$427.35−$1,439
Oct 10−$991.57−$491.54−$186.02−$1,649
Oct 11−$1,527−$1,067−$815.35−$1,782
Oct 12−$3,489−$2,927−$968.41−$1,930
Oct 13−$3,721−$2,959−$576.92−$2,242
Oct 14−$3,471−$3,146−$1,047−$2,369
Oct 15−$4,000−$3,752−$1,362−$2,373
Oct 16+$541.61−$3,246−$1,420−$2,373
Oct 17−$465.86−$3,012−$1,262−$2,413
Oct 18−$198.55−$3,384−$1,496−$2,365
Oct 19+$1,090−$3,358−$1,686−$2,813
Oct 20+$795.96−$4,437−$1,657−$2,866
Oct 21−$322.11−$5,237−$1,984−$2,911
Oct 22−$157.78−$5,292−$2,051−$3,059
Oct 23+$539.92−$5,669−$2,505−$3,215
Oct 24+$2,134−$3,350−$2,383−$3,210
Oct 25+$6,503−$95.17+$5,424−$4,703
Oct 26+$6,839+$104.74+$5,424−$4,703

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min+$6,839100%+ (Exactly 637.9%: the simulated copy did better than the leader)64%
1 min+$104.749.8%58%
5 min (selected)+$5,424100%+ (Exactly 466.6%: the simulated copy did better than the leader)39%
30 min−$4,703−633%18%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size+$1,163
  2. Delay helped+$5,899
  3. Slippage−$84.69
  4. Fees (buys $995.59 · sells $556.78)−$1,552
  5. Follower PnL+$5,424

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Sports987+$7,445+18.7%
Politics34−$2,020−59.4%

Data version 12087 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 34 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Sports traders

See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.