In backtest, only 24% of 0xbace…3429's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 24% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 10% only partly; the +$10,076 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xbace…3429's 479 buys across 48 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$10,076 — more than the leader's +$5,884 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (171.3%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$4,521, slippage $21.26 and fees $306.84. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $7,154 at once across 167 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 284 estimated: 105 high · 138 medium · 41 low · 72 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$8,925; 1 min: +$9,312; 5 min: +$10,076; 30 min: +$10,613. Max drawdown −$577.54 (5 min, Oct 24). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 22 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 23 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 24 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 25 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 26 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 27 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | +$0.25 |
| Sep 28 | +$0.37 | −$6.52 | −$19.02 | +$0.58 |
| Sep 29 | +$7.41 | +$0.52 | −$11.99 | +$0.86 |
| Sep 30 | +$6.89 | −$0.40 | −$12.91 | −$79.70 |
| Oct 1 | −$2.27 | −$9.44 | −$78.18 | −$365.07 |
| Oct 2 | +$260.87 | +$253.77 | +$64.92 | −$367.39 |
| Oct 3 | +$432.48 | +$477.12 | +$159.80 | −$154.89 |
| Oct 4 | +$540.24 | +$553.46 | +$270.66 | −$120.04 |
| Oct 5 | +$254.84 | +$265.11 | +$53.58 | −$353.26 |
| Oct 6 | +$149.27 | +$181.96 | −$17.77 | −$467.09 |
| Oct 7 | +$93.80 | +$322.83 | +$741.54 | +$221.37 |
| Oct 8 | +$158.39 | +$986.83 | +$1,556 | +$1,454 |
| Oct 9 | +$133.00 | +$985.72 | +$1,556 | +$1,460 |
| Oct 10 | +$133.00 | +$985.72 | +$1,556 | +$1,460 |
| Oct 11 | +$107.62 | +$960.15 | +$1,556 | +$1,436 |
| Oct 12 | +$107.62 | +$960.15 | +$1,556 | +$1,436 |
| Oct 13 | +$107.62 | +$960.15 | +$1,556 | +$1,436 |
| Oct 14 | +$116.54 | +$1,067 | +$1,552 | +$1,630 |
| Oct 15 | +$161.71 | +$1,139 | +$1,706 | +$1,977 |
| Oct 16 | +$35.33 | +$996.70 | +$1,553 | +$1,861 |
| Oct 17 | +$35.33 | +$996.70 | +$1,553 | +$1,852 |
| Oct 18 | +$5.71 | +$967.08 | +$1,551 | +$1,848 |
| Oct 19 | −$34.43 | +$937.99 | +$1,534 | +$1,807 |
| Oct 20 | −$34.43 | +$937.99 | +$1,534 | +$1,807 |
| Oct 21 | −$22.86 | +$886.85 | +$1,274 | +$2,008 |
| Oct 22 | +$35.15 | +$786.70 | +$1,191 | +$1,997 |
| Oct 23 | +$35.15 | +$786.70 | +$1,191 | +$1,997 |
| Oct 24 | −$17.54 | +$736.16 | +$1,145 | +$1,947 |
| Oct 25 | +$8,925 | +$9,312 | +$10,076 | +$10,613 |
| Oct 26 | +$8,925 | +$9,312 | +$10,076 | +$10,613 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$8,925 | 100%+ (Exactly 151.7%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 25% |
| 1 min | +$9,312 | 100%+ (Exactly 158.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 24% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$10,076 | 100%+ (Exactly 171.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 24% |
| 30 min | +$10,613 | 100%+ (Exactly 180.4%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 23% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$5,884
- Delay helped+$4,521
- Slippage−$21.26
- Fees (buys $229.12 · sells $77.72)−$306.84
- Follower PnL+$10,076
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 352 | +$10,103 | +81.7% |
| Sports | 70 | −$18.36 | −43.0% |
| Crypto | 36 | +$6.12 | +5.1% |
| Finance | 20 | −$13.99 | −11.3% |
| Tech | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x629b…995aBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x58b3…653cBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xdb40…3612Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.