In backtest, only 24% of 0xe738…df65's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 24% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 13% only partly; the −$7.51 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xe738…df65's 201 buys across 52 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$7.51. The leader lost $773.51 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$957.14, slippage $88.78 and fees $102.36. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $4,324 at once across 75 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 127 estimated: 5 high · 100 medium · 22 low · 23 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$707.30; 1 min: −$612.86; 5 min: −$7.51; 30 min: −$995.38. Max drawdown −$1,011 (5 min, Sep 22). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$3.25 | $0.00 | $0.00 | +$1.25 |
| Sep 22 | +$334.66 | +$335.65 | +$658.59 | +$44.05 |
| Sep 23 | +$329.88 | +$324.86 | +$658.26 | +$51.00 |
| Sep 24 | +$48.60 | +$19.85 | +$460.10 | −$8.92 |
| Sep 25 | +$48.60 | +$19.85 | +$460.10 | −$8.92 |
| Sep 26 | −$220.49 | −$252.38 | +$124.58 | −$38.48 |
| Sep 27 | −$220.49 | −$252.38 | +$124.58 | −$38.48 |
| Sep 28 | −$220.49 | −$252.38 | +$124.58 | −$38.48 |
| Sep 29 | −$216.27 | −$248.16 | +$124.58 | −$34.33 |
| Sep 30 | −$216.27 | −$248.16 | +$124.58 | −$34.33 |
| Oct 1 | −$216.00 | −$247.93 | +$124.58 | −$34.33 |
| Oct 2 | −$215.68 | −$247.93 | +$124.58 | −$34.33 |
| Oct 3 | −$215.68 | −$247.93 | +$124.58 | −$34.33 |
| Oct 4 | −$215.68 | −$247.93 | +$124.58 | −$34.33 |
| Oct 5 | −$304.24 | −$247.99 | +$131.69 | −$41.12 |
| Oct 6 | −$507.79 | −$449.87 | +$3.43 | −$141.77 |
| Oct 7 | −$616.15 | −$557.45 | −$152.29 | −$196.58 |
| Oct 8 | −$578.32 | −$488.86 | −$74.44 | −$196.58 |
| Oct 9 | −$707.98 | −$615.41 | −$195.87 | −$995.38 |
| Oct 10 | −$707.31 | −$615.41 | −$8.93 | −$995.38 |
| Oct 11 | −$707.31 | −$615.41 | −$8.93 | −$995.38 |
| Oct 12 | −$707.31 | −$615.41 | −$8.93 | −$995.38 |
| Oct 13 | −$707.31 | −$615.41 | −$8.93 | −$995.38 |
| Oct 14 | −$707.82 | −$611.90 | −$7.51 | −$995.38 |
| Oct 15 | −$708.99 | −$612.86 | −$7.51 | −$995.38 |
| Oct 16 | −$708.99 | −$612.86 | −$7.51 | −$995.38 |
| Oct 17 | −$708.99 | −$612.86 | −$7.51 | −$995.38 |
| Oct 18 | −$707.30 | −$612.86 | −$7.51 | −$995.38 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$707.30 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 25% |
| 1 min | −$612.86 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 21% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$7.51 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 24% |
| 30 min | −$995.38 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 16% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$773.51
- Delay helped+$957.14
- Slippage−$88.78
- Fees (buys $97.33 · sells $5.03)−$102.36
- Follower PnL−$7.51
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 131 | +$216.37 | +5.1% |
| Geopolitics | 45 | +$283.47 | +42.1% |
| Sports | 25 | −$507.36 | −102% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x71ca…3501Keeps −17% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x76db…6987Keeps −40% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x88c4…129aLeader lost money at this size
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.