In backtest, only 5% of 0xe734…4f0c's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:03 UTC.
Only 5% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 9% only partly; the +$2,905 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xe734…4f0c's 3,624 buys across 185 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 45% of the leader's returns: +$2,905 against +$6,475 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $2,662, slippage $180.94 and fees $726.58. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $8,883 at once across 499 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,889 estimated: 897 high · 654 medium · 338 low · 1,466 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$10,058; 1 min: +$9,586; 5 min: +$2,905; 30 min: +$1,639. Max drawdown −$2,467 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$328.28 | +$186.28 | +$229.85 | +$47.60 |
| Sep 22 | −$66.17 | −$76.77 | −$8.40 | −$257.37 |
| Sep 23 | −$92.66 | −$93.34 | −$29.21 | −$269.86 |
| Sep 24 | −$92.74 | −$127.23 | −$85.44 | −$128.65 |
| Sep 25 | −$87.37 | −$127.21 | −$73.10 | −$127.40 |
| Sep 26 | −$97.58 | −$217.92 | −$133.80 | −$478.52 |
| Sep 27 | −$291.72 | −$392.90 | −$282.70 | −$211.92 |
| Sep 28 | −$711.78 | −$808.85 | −$546.08 | −$4,558 |
| Sep 29 | −$711.62 | −$760.26 | −$539.51 | −$4,582 |
| Sep 30 | −$714.67 | −$761.29 | −$551.89 | −$4,571 |
| Oct 1 | −$797.09 | −$845.55 | −$626.74 | −$4,730 |
| Oct 2 | −$1,089 | −$1,105 | −$663.56 | −$4,756 |
| Oct 3 | −$1,081 | −$1,100 | −$658.57 | −$4,752 |
| Oct 4 | −$1,463 | −$1,427 | −$1,077 | −$4,931 |
| Oct 5 | −$1,638 | −$1,441 | −$1,142 | −$4,938 |
| Oct 6 | −$1,714 | −$1,507 | −$1,211 | −$4,957 |
| Oct 7 | −$1,714 | −$1,507 | −$1,211 | −$4,957 |
| Oct 8 | −$1,832 | −$1,577 | −$1,266 | −$4,973 |
| Oct 9 | −$1,105 | −$741.92 | −$202.73 | −$3,416 |
| Oct 10 | −$1,105 | −$741.92 | −$202.73 | −$3,416 |
| Oct 11 | −$1,149 | −$777.88 | −$207.67 | −$3,451 |
| Oct 12 | −$1,094 | −$707.39 | −$97.03 | −$3,428 |
| Oct 13 | −$1,159 | −$765.54 | −$212.40 | −$4,270 |
| Oct 14 | +$1,730 | +$2,115 | +$1,181 | −$3,162 |
| Oct 15 | +$1,711 | +$2,168 | +$1,199 | −$3,153 |
| Oct 16 | +$1,778 | +$2,229 | +$1,260 | −$3,164 |
| Oct 17 | +$1,778 | +$2,229 | +$1,260 | −$3,166 |
| Oct 18 | +$1,778 | +$2,229 | +$1,260 | −$3,166 |
| Oct 19 | +$1,659 | +$2,269 | +$1,284 | −$3,143 |
| Oct 20 | +$3,317 | +$3,578 | +$2,095 | −$1,896 |
| Oct 21 | +$9,358 | +$9,563 | +$4,707 | +$4,507 |
| Oct 22 | +$9,171 | +$9,397 | +$4,565 | +$4,318 |
| Oct 23 | +$9,778 | +$9,991 | +$4,737 | +$3,864 |
| Oct 24 | +$9,941 | +$9,584 | +$2,967 | +$1,677 |
| Oct 25 | +$10,065 | +$9,595 | +$2,900 | +$1,650 |
| Oct 26 | +$10,058 | +$9,586 | +$2,905 | +$1,639 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$10,058 | 100%+ (Exactly 155.2%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 6% |
| 1 min | +$9,586 | 100%+ (Exactly 147.9%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 6% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$2,905 | 44.9% | 5% |
| 30 min | +$1,639 | 25.4% | 8% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$6,475
- Delay cost−$2,662
- Slippage−$180.94
- Fees (buys $606.34 · sells $120.24)−$726.58
- Follower PnL+$2,905
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1,849 | +$3,300 | +19.4% |
| Finance | 924 | +$35.14 | +1.2% |
| Crypto | 832 | −$438.09 | −12.0% |
| Politics | 19 | +$8.52 | +14.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0259…769eLeader lost money at this size
- 0xe6ca…bff4Leader lost money at this size
- 0x57a8…ebc2Leader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.