In backtest, only 1% of 0xe8fc…0d3b's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional1 buy is too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after it isn't indexed yet, so it's left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:03 UTC.
Only 1% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 8% only partly; the −$118.01 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xe8fc…0d3b's 4,741 buys across 3,512 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$118.01. The leader lost $10,540 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: the delay helped by +$10,878, slippage $234.74 and fees $221.26. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $9,725 at once across 411 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,740 estimated: 689 high · 78 medium · 973 low · 2,810 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$161.61; 1 min: +$501.45; 5 min: −$118.01; 30 min: +$459.23. Max drawdown −$541.25 (5 min, Sep 30). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$302.53 | −$175.33 | −$354.27 | −$33.91 |
| Sep 22 | −$334.36 | −$196.47 | −$303.20 | −$137.90 |
| Sep 23 | −$204.67 | −$74.75 | −$244.08 | −$71.86 |
| Sep 24 | −$272.79 | −$150.37 | −$441.37 | −$27.89 |
| Sep 25 | −$213.03 | −$89.33 | −$450.24 | +$35.83 |
| Sep 26 | −$281.10 | −$133.76 | −$419.44 | +$71.23 |
| Sep 27 | −$426.43 | −$172.89 | −$445.50 | +$202.25 |
| Sep 28 | −$477.86 | −$143.79 | −$410.32 | +$242.28 |
| Sep 29 | −$519.44 | −$193.04 | −$431.91 | +$194.56 |
| Sep 30 | −$684.18 | −$354.95 | −$515.25 | +$136.02 |
| Oct 1 | −$654.09 | −$309.37 | −$525.18 | +$159.76 |
| Oct 2 | −$622.82 | −$294.97 | −$484.51 | +$157.88 |
| Oct 3 | −$581.86 | −$227.55 | −$463.73 | +$224.79 |
| Oct 4 | −$557.23 | −$217.86 | −$429.60 | +$244.30 |
| Oct 5 | −$381.84 | −$141.02 | −$486.40 | +$292.27 |
| Oct 6 | −$312.91 | −$0.07 | −$374.63 | +$395.90 |
| Oct 7 | −$297.08 | +$18.10 | −$376.15 | +$376.66 |
| Oct 8 | −$79.84 | +$110.29 | −$374.58 | +$408.33 |
| Oct 9 | −$33.98 | +$158.91 | −$335.26 | +$398.15 |
| Oct 10 | +$198.80 | +$429.88 | −$102.78 | +$347.04 |
| Oct 11 | +$64.86 | +$340.63 | −$175.71 | +$330.34 |
| Oct 12 | +$212.72 | +$419.97 | −$208.27 | +$277.31 |
| Oct 13 | +$249.10 | +$544.17 | −$65.14 | +$288.41 |
| Oct 14 | +$352.96 | +$632.17 | −$22.63 | +$288.91 |
| Oct 15 | +$312.57 | +$575.87 | −$128.67 | +$260.10 |
| Oct 16 | +$263.20 | +$484.19 | −$191.06 | +$251.76 |
| Oct 17 | +$434.84 | +$503.01 | −$181.20 | +$243.77 |
| Oct 18 | +$355.37 | +$476.67 | −$158.54 | +$245.88 |
| Oct 19 | +$252.88 | +$451.62 | −$179.51 | +$248.00 |
| Oct 20 | +$359.91 | +$534.01 | −$157.61 | +$260.19 |
| Oct 21 | +$367.66 | +$543.65 | −$157.67 | +$249.47 |
| Oct 22 | +$310.03 | +$513.70 | −$181.93 | +$407.10 |
| Oct 23 | +$231.51 | +$509.14 | −$169.35 | +$436.90 |
| Oct 24 | +$215.99 | +$514.77 | −$162.34 | +$452.15 |
| Oct 25 | +$167.53 | +$482.42 | −$132.89 | +$451.52 |
| Oct 26 | +$161.61 | +$501.45 | −$118.01 | +$459.23 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$161.61 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 2% |
| 1 min | +$501.45 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 1% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$118.01 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 1% |
| 30 min | +$459.23 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 1% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$10,540
- Delay helped+$10,878
- Slippage−$234.74
- Fees (buys $214.87 · sells $6.39)−$221.26
- Follower PnL−$118.01
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 1,369 | +$120.63 | +3.8% |
| Sports | 1,002 | +$351.12 | +20.3% |
| Tech | 761 | −$207.04 | −8.5% |
| Finance | 465 | −$26.14 | −2.3% |
| Economy | 452 | −$45.60 | −2.7% |
| Culture | 430 | −$221.27 | −19.6% |
| Geopolitics | 119 | −$55.45 | −40.9% |
| Crypto | 105 | −$34.24 | −31.1% |
| Weather | 31 | −$0.04 | −0.2% |
| Other | 6 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xa53e…218dLeader lost money at this size
- 0xdf1c…2ebbKeeps −3% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xc301…66aaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.