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In backtest, copying 0xe9b7…ce7b turns a profit into a loss at a 5-minute delay

Sports 0xe9b710551dd82a44e79203c2394a2b10163ace7b Profile on Polymarket

A copier who mirrored 0xe9b7…ce7b's 220 buys across 38 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$1,505, while the leader made +$46.85 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $1,170, slippage helped by +$17.19 and fees $398.56 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $5,230 at once across 186 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$1,505
Incl. estimates +$118.44
Max drawdown −$5,481
ROI −8.7% on total cost
Returns kept
−3212%
Leader, same size +$46.85
follower ÷ leader
Peak capital in use
$5,230
Incl. estimates $8,000
220 copied buys · $17,308 total cost
Fill rate
75%
Incl. estimates 100%
164 filled · 22 partial · 34 no buyers
Backtest score
34/100
220 buys · 38 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 56 estimated: 56 high · 0 medium · 0 low How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$5.5k

Final values: 0 min: −$659.70; 1 min: −$786.23; 5 min: −$1,505; 30 min: −$1,593. Max drawdown −$5,481 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Oct 21−$1,952−$2,112−$1,758−$2,067
Oct 22−$3,314−$3,467−$4,096−$4,559
Oct 23−$3,283−$3,442−$4,231−$4,534
Oct 24−$2,889−$3,048−$3,582−$4,302
Oct 25−$1,722−$1,847−$2,566−$2,633
Oct 26−$659.70−$786.23−$1,505−$1,593

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$659.70−1408%74%
1 min−$786.23−1678%71%
5 min (selected)−$1,505−3212%75%
30 min−$1,593−3400%74%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size+$46.85
  2. Delay cost−$1,170
  3. Slippage helped+$17.19
  4. Fees (buys $396.11 · sells $2.45)−$398.56
  5. Follower PnL−$1,505

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Sports220−$1,505−8.7%

Data version 12089 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 28 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Sports traders

See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.