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In backtest, only 11% of 0xed10…d2e5's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay

Politics 0xed107a85a4585a381e48c7f7ca4144909e7dd2e5 Profile on Polymarket

Only 11% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 10% only partly; the −$1,172 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xed10…d2e5's 3,495 buys across 154 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$1,172, while the leader made +$277.72 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $1,133, slippage $3.06 and fees $314.18 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $22,444 at once across 717 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$1,172
Incl. estimates −$3,204
Max drawdown −$3,320
ROI −2.6% on total cost
Returns kept
−422%
Leader, same size +$277.72
follower ÷ leader
Peak capital in use
$22,444
Incl. estimates $113,413
3,495 copied buys · $44,669 total cost
Fill rate
11%
Most buys couldn't be fully copied
Incl. estimates 60%
383 filled · 334 partial · 2,778 no buyers
Backtest score
18/100
3,495 buys · 154 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,961 estimated: 460 high · 1,253 medium · 248 low · 1,078 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$3.3k

Final values: 0 min: −$3,369; 1 min: −$2,956; 5 min: −$1,172; 30 min: −$7,139. Max drawdown −$3,320 (5 min, Oct 24). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21+$1.03+$0.19−$0.56+$0.31
Sep 22−$0.07+$0.17−$0.78+$0.88
Sep 23−$3.99−$1.41−$0.30+$0.84
Sep 24−$6.99−$2.93−$3.30−$0.48
Sep 25+$145.45+$32.35−$3.30+$86.94
Sep 26−$217.38−$210.00−$130.60+$47.62
Sep 27−$929.43−$921.45−$183.82−$256.12
Sep 28−$928.03−$917.60−$182.08−$256.17
Sep 29−$928.26−$917.38−$182.07−$255.98
Sep 30−$910.02−$900.17−$174.83−$251.70
Oct 1−$909.55−$900.37−$177.57−$248.72
Oct 2−$882.12−$868.19−$135.57−$250.17
Oct 3−$1,794−$1,704−$85.76−$3,605
Oct 4−$1,767−$1,676−$37.02−$3,681
Oct 5−$1,767−$1,676−$37.02−$3,681
Oct 6−$1,769−$1,676−$37.02−$3,681
Oct 7−$1,769−$1,676−$37.02−$3,681
Oct 8−$1,769−$1,676−$37.02−$3,681
Oct 9−$1,777−$1,676−$35.99−$3,680
Oct 10−$2,001−$1,758−$173.29−$4,231
Oct 11−$2,001−$1,758−$173.29−$4,231
Oct 12−$2,390−$2,049−$312.10−$4,578
Oct 13−$2,418−$2,054−$313.95−$4,669
Oct 14−$3,298−$2,991−$1,215−$6,019
Oct 15−$3,499−$3,192−$1,216−$6,059
Oct 16−$3,765−$3,311−$1,418−$6,093
Oct 17−$3,933−$3,411−$1,622−$6,454
Oct 18−$3,933−$3,411−$1,622−$6,454
Oct 19−$3,933−$3,412−$1,623−$6,454
Oct 20−$3,928−$3,404−$1,614−$6,449
Oct 21−$3,927−$3,402−$1,613−$6,448
Oct 22−$3,910−$3,385−$1,613−$6,447
Oct 23−$3,907−$3,385−$1,613−$6,446
Oct 24−$3,365−$2,952−$1,170−$7,131
Oct 25−$3,369−$2,956−$1,172−$7,139
Oct 26−$3,369−$2,956−$1,172−$7,139

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$3,369−1213%13%
1 min−$2,956−1064%12%
5 min (selected)−$1,172−422%11%
30 min−$7,139−2571%9%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size+$277.72
  2. Delay cost−$1,133
  3. Slippage−$3.06
  4. Fees (buys $311.22 · sells $2.96)−$314.18
  5. Follower PnL−$1,172

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Politics1,087−$1,088−6.4%
Sports1,005−$135.84−0.6%
Crypto523+$44.22+5.5%
Other485−$3.68−2.7%
Geopolitics287+$11.39+0.3%
Finance76+$0.20+0.1%
Culture19+$0.05+0.5%
Tech13+$0.01+0.1%

Data version 12076 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 2,035 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Politics traders

See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.