In backtest, only 20% of 0x629b…995a's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 20% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 7% only partly; the +$45,418 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x629b…995a's 3,223 buys across 347 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$45,418 — more than the leader's +$40,206 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (113.0%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$6,609, slippage $329.08 and fees $1,067. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $52,585 at once across 870 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,159 estimated: 394 high · 423 medium · 342 low · 1,369 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$38,867; 1 min: +$44,821; 5 min: +$45,418; 30 min: +$39,759. Max drawdown −$3,151 (5 min, Oct 4). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$46.98 | −$61.12 | −$59.12 | −$110.57 |
| Sep 22 | −$51.57 | +$28.36 | +$183.24 | +$193.83 |
| Sep 23 | −$200.86 | +$45.92 | +$230.86 | +$185.75 |
| Sep 24 | +$1,784 | +$1,882 | +$1,597 | +$516.95 |
| Sep 25 | +$2,206 | +$2,305 | +$2,020 | +$1,826 |
| Sep 26 | +$2,284 | +$2,772 | +$3,453 | +$2,221 |
| Sep 27 | +$2,331 | +$2,807 | +$3,471 | +$2,377 |
| Sep 28 | +$2,372 | +$2,825 | +$3,491 | +$2,428 |
| Sep 29 | +$2,265 | +$2,818 | +$3,435 | +$2,439 |
| Sep 30 | +$2,851 | +$2,935 | +$3,734 | +$2,685 |
| Oct 1 | +$3,261 | +$3,032 | +$3,789 | +$2,951 |
| Oct 2 | +$3,210 | +$2,976 | +$3,684 | +$3,132 |
| Oct 3 | +$1,803 | +$2,300 | +$3,022 | +$2,609 |
| Oct 4 | +$4,238 | +$7,841 | +$8,712 | +$3,983 |
| Oct 5 | +$4,751 | +$8,290 | +$9,227 | +$4,215 |
| Oct 6 | +$4,751 | +$8,290 | +$9,227 | +$4,215 |
| Oct 7 | +$4,777 | +$8,313 | +$9,268 | +$4,270 |
| Oct 8 | +$4,778 | +$8,314 | +$9,268 | +$4,285 |
| Oct 9 | +$4,778 | +$8,314 | +$9,271 | +$4,729 |
| Oct 10 | +$4,804 | +$8,331 | +$9,278 | +$4,741 |
| Oct 11 | +$4,674 | +$8,211 | +$9,158 | +$4,712 |
| Oct 12 | +$4,674 | +$8,211 | +$9,158 | +$4,712 |
| Oct 13 | +$4,728 | +$8,210 | +$9,157 | +$4,712 |
| Oct 14 | +$5,371 | +$8,525 | +$9,477 | +$5,612 |
| Oct 15 | +$10,635 | +$15,108 | +$16,301 | +$12,764 |
| Oct 16 | +$11,685 | +$16,340 | +$18,002 | +$13,986 |
| Oct 17 | +$12,054 | +$16,433 | +$18,002 | +$13,986 |
| Oct 18 | +$12,490 | +$16,953 | +$18,623 | +$15,466 |
| Oct 19 | +$12,720 | +$17,259 | +$18,906 | +$15,216 |
| Oct 20 | +$12,567 | +$17,058 | +$19,300 | +$14,444 |
| Oct 21 | +$12,343 | +$16,841 | +$19,077 | +$14,196 |
| Oct 22 | +$13,686 | +$19,025 | +$21,106 | +$16,509 |
| Oct 23 | +$14,199 | +$20,277 | +$22,610 | +$17,319 |
| Oct 24 | +$15,067 | +$21,126 | +$23,375 | +$24,267 |
| Oct 25 | +$38,698 | +$44,661 | +$45,253 | +$39,752 |
| Oct 26 | +$38,867 | +$44,821 | +$45,418 | +$39,759 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$38,867 | 96.7% | 20% |
| 1 min | +$44,821 | 100%+ (Exactly 111.5%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 19% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$45,418 | 100%+ (Exactly 113.0%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 20% |
| 30 min | +$39,759 | 98.9% | 18% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$40,206
- Delay helped+$6,609
- Slippage−$329.08
- Fees (buys $1,048 · sells $19.59)−$1,067
- Follower PnL+$45,418
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 3,223 | +$45,418 | +66.1% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x58b3…653cBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xdb40…3612Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x6114…cff0Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.