In backtest, only 19% of 0x02b4…7092's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional1 buy is too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after it isn't indexed yet, so it's left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:32 UTC.
Only 19% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 2% only partly; the +$723.22 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x02b4…7092's 1,886 buys across 283 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$723.22 — more than the leader's +$623.33 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (116.0%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$155.99, slippage $21.61 and fees $34.49. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $5,400 at once across 407 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 822 estimated: 152 high · 585 medium · 85 low · 694 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$501.08; 1 min: +$513.08; 5 min: +$723.22; 30 min: +$555.97. Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 23 | +$0.48 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 24 | +$0.70 | +$0.17 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 25 | +$0.70 | +$0.17 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 26 | +$0.80 | +$0.27 | +$0.10 | +$0.17 |
| Sep 27 | +$6.89 | +$6.40 | +$6.38 | +$0.17 |
| Sep 28 | +$6.89 | +$6.40 | +$6.38 | +$0.17 |
| Sep 29 | +$49.36 | +$59.17 | +$65.30 | +$0.17 |
| Sep 30 | +$55.78 | +$64.01 | +$68.72 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 1 | +$55.78 | +$64.01 | +$68.72 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 2 | +$55.78 | +$64.01 | +$68.72 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 3 | +$58.90 | +$67.13 | +$72.44 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 4 | +$61.52 | +$69.71 | +$75.11 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 5 | +$61.52 | +$69.71 | +$75.15 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 6 | +$61.62 | +$69.77 | +$75.15 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 7 | +$64.39 | +$72.34 | +$76.58 | +$0.17 |
| Oct 8 | +$66.62 | +$74.57 | +$77.77 | +$0.65 |
| Oct 9 | +$146.63 | +$154.71 | +$161.02 | +$0.65 |
| Oct 10 | +$184.34 | +$192.79 | +$199.44 | +$2.22 |
| Oct 11 | +$187.34 | +$195.44 | +$199.72 | +$4.01 |
| Oct 12 | +$202.87 | +$214.80 | +$265.90 | +$5.95 |
| Oct 13 | +$239.43 | +$247.35 | +$304.16 | +$9.14 |
| Oct 14 | +$277.48 | +$282.13 | +$336.15 | +$13.05 |
| Oct 15 | +$280.48 | +$285.11 | +$339.24 | +$16.08 |
| Oct 16 | +$284.02 | +$288.29 | +$340.21 | +$16.08 |
| Oct 17 | +$298.29 | +$302.00 | +$351.14 | +$16.08 |
| Oct 18 | +$332.21 | +$335.91 | +$380.50 | +$16.08 |
| Oct 19 | +$345.77 | +$347.56 | +$391.23 | +$16.08 |
| Oct 20 | +$353.77 | +$355.56 | +$397.58 | +$16.08 |
| Oct 21 | +$359.11 | +$365.62 | +$417.69 | +$18.25 |
| Oct 22 | +$377.41 | +$387.04 | +$419.10 | +$18.53 |
| Oct 23 | +$395.54 | +$405.07 | +$524.67 | +$18.53 |
| Oct 24 | +$450.39 | +$458.51 | +$663.69 | +$18.53 |
| Oct 25 | +$496.99 | +$509.32 | +$723.22 | +$555.97 |
| Oct 26 | +$501.08 | +$513.08 | +$723.22 | +$555.97 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$501.08 | 80.4% | 19% |
| 1 min | +$513.08 | 82.3% | 19% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$723.22 | 100%+ (Exactly 116.0%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 19% |
| 30 min | +$555.97 | 89.3% | 3% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$623.33
- Delay helped+$155.99
- Slippage−$21.61
- Fees (buys $34.49 · sells $0.00)−$34.49
- Follower PnL+$723.22
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1,885 | +$723.22 | +1.9% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xbeb1…4687Keeps 92% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x4f30…1e29Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8935…1422Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.