In backtest, only 7% of 0x4f30…1e29's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 7% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 3% only partly; the +$1.67 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x4f30…1e29's 76 buys across 75 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$1.67 — more than the leader's +$0.98 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (170.7%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$1.06, slippage $0.28 and fees $0.09. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $214.48 at once across 7 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 50 estimated: 1 high · 47 medium · 2 low · 20 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$10.85; 1 min: +$2.29; 5 min: +$1.67; 30 min: $0.00. Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 22 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 23 | +$0.10 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 24 | +$0.10 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 25 | +$0.10 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 26 | +$0.10 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 27 | +$0.10 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 28 | +$0.10 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 29 | +$0.19 | +$0.16 | +$0.10 | $0.00 |
| Sep 30 | +$0.63 | +$0.33 | +$0.40 | $0.00 |
| Oct 1 | +$0.65 | +$0.33 | +$0.40 | $0.00 |
| Oct 2 | +$0.96 | +$0.55 | +$0.51 | $0.00 |
| Oct 3 | +$8.42 | +$0.85 | +$0.51 | $0.00 |
| Oct 4 | +$8.44 | +$0.85 | +$0.51 | $0.00 |
| Oct 5 | +$8.44 | +$0.85 | +$0.51 | $0.00 |
| Oct 6 | +$8.44 | +$0.85 | +$0.51 | $0.00 |
| Oct 7 | +$8.50 | +$0.85 | +$0.51 | $0.00 |
| Oct 8 | +$8.50 | +$0.85 | +$0.51 | $0.00 |
| Oct 9 | +$8.50 | +$0.85 | +$0.51 | $0.00 |
| Oct 10 | +$8.50 | +$0.85 | +$0.51 | $0.00 |
| Oct 11 | +$8.63 | +$0.98 | +$0.52 | $0.00 |
| Oct 12 | +$8.63 | +$0.98 | +$0.52 | $0.00 |
| Oct 13 | +$8.82 | +$1.07 | +$0.52 | $0.00 |
| Oct 14 | +$8.91 | +$1.17 | +$0.52 | $0.00 |
| Oct 15 | +$9.10 | +$2.29 | +$1.67 | $0.00 |
| Oct 16 | +$9.10 | +$2.29 | +$1.67 | $0.00 |
| Oct 17 | +$9.10 | +$2.29 | +$1.67 | $0.00 |
| Oct 18 | +$9.10 | +$2.29 | +$1.67 | $0.00 |
| Oct 19 | +$9.10 | +$2.29 | +$1.67 | $0.00 |
| Oct 20 | +$9.10 | +$2.29 | +$1.67 | $0.00 |
| Oct 21 | +$9.10 | +$2.29 | +$1.67 | $0.00 |
| Oct 22 | +$9.10 | +$2.29 | +$1.67 | $0.00 |
| Oct 23 | +$9.10 | +$2.29 | +$1.67 | $0.00 |
| Oct 24 | +$10.85 | +$2.29 | +$1.67 | $0.00 |
| Oct 25 | +$10.85 | +$2.29 | +$1.67 | $0.00 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$10.85 | 100%+ (Exactly 1105.7%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 16% |
| 1 min | +$2.29 | 100%+ (Exactly 233.2%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 11% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$1.67 | 100%+ (Exactly 170.7%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 7% |
| 30 min | $0.00 | 0.0% | 0% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$0.98
- Delay helped+$1.06
- Slippage−$0.28
- Fees (buys $0.09 · sells $0.00)−$0.09
- Follower PnL+$1.67
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 74 | +$1.67 | +0.3% |
| Crypto | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Tech | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8935…1422Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x996a…e3ccKeeps 92% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x677d…4907Keeps 58% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.