In backtest, only 18% of 0xbeb1…4687's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 18% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 9% only partly; the +$43,891 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xbeb1…4687's 4,868 buys across 200 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept 92% of the leader's returns: +$43,891 against +$47,907 for the leader at the same size. In this backtest, most of the edge survived the delay, and 18% of buys could be filled within 10 minutes. The remaining gap is delay cost $1,562, slippage helped by +$44.61 and fees $2,499. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $24,940 at once across 1,324 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 2,693 estimated: 0 high · 2,113 medium · 580 low · 1,212 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$34,689; 1 min: +$39,112; 5 min: +$43,891; 30 min: +$53,298. Max drawdown −$10,088 (5 min, Sep 29). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | −$210.83 | −$210.83 | −$264.31 | −$539.52 |
| Sep 21 | −$252.25 | −$227.42 | −$177.36 | −$206.99 |
| Sep 22 | −$252.25 | −$227.42 | −$177.36 | −$206.99 |
| Sep 23 | −$252.25 | −$227.42 | −$177.36 | −$206.99 |
| Sep 24 | −$1,465 | −$1,499 | −$1,170 | −$1,937 |
| Sep 25 | +$3,710 | +$4,637 | +$4,756 | +$2,240 |
| Sep 26 | −$4,291 | −$3,703 | −$2,932 | −$11,229 |
| Sep 27 | −$2,028 | −$463.73 | +$299.30 | −$10,495 |
| Sep 28 | −$3,659 | −$2,018 | −$2,892 | −$14,053 |
| Sep 29 | −$4,159 | −$2,562 | −$3,760 | −$14,933 |
| Sep 30 | −$4,159 | −$2,562 | −$3,760 | −$14,933 |
| Oct 1 | +$29,313 | +$31,934 | +$33,826 | +$36,118 |
| Oct 2 | +$28,118 | +$30,736 | +$32,702 | +$34,332 |
| Oct 3 | +$25,049 | +$27,854 | +$29,859 | +$33,355 |
| Oct 4 | +$33,617 | +$38,165 | +$43,156 | +$49,056 |
| Oct 5 | +$34,598 | +$39,082 | +$43,791 | +$51,318 |
| Oct 6 | +$34,642 | +$39,109 | +$43,839 | +$51,383 |
| Oct 7 | +$34,689 | +$39,112 | +$43,891 | +$53,298 |
| Oct 8 | +$34,689 | +$39,112 | +$43,891 | +$53,298 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$34,689 | 72.4% | 15% |
| 1 min | +$39,112 | 81.6% | 17% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$43,891 | 91.6% | 18% |
| 30 min | +$53,298 | 100%+ (Exactly 111.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 24% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$47,907
- Delay cost−$1,562
- Slippage helped+$44.61
- Fees (buys $2,499 · sells $0.00)−$2,499
- Follower PnL+$43,891
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4,868 | +$43,891 | +44.4% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x4f30…1e29Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8935…1422Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x996a…e3ccKeeps 92% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.