In backtest, only 34% of 0x14af…ca2c's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 34% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 15% only partly; the −$6,729 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x14af…ca2c's 446 buys across 76 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$6,729. The leader lost $5,956 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $393.14, slippage helped by +$65.11 and fees $444.72. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $3,611 at once across 218 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 192 estimated: 0 high · 142 medium · 50 low · 93 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$7,942; 1 min: −$7,856; 5 min: −$6,729; 30 min: −$5,550. Max drawdown −$7,521 (5 min, Oct 5). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$402.83 | +$471.56 | +$312.70 | +$464.09 |
| Sep 22 | +$402.83 | +$471.56 | +$312.70 | +$464.09 |
| Sep 23 | +$402.83 | +$471.56 | +$312.70 | +$464.09 |
| Sep 24 | +$1,136 | +$1,102 | +$632.16 | +$1,304 |
| Sep 25 | −$64.92 | −$266.04 | −$512.23 | +$164.81 |
| Sep 26 | −$3,803 | −$3,568 | −$3,220 | −$3,174 |
| Sep 27 | −$4,426 | −$4,353 | −$4,025 | −$3,356 |
| Sep 28 | −$6,934 | −$6,888 | −$6,007 | −$3,362 |
| Sep 29 | −$6,934 | −$6,888 | −$6,007 | −$3,362 |
| Sep 30 | −$6,934 | −$6,888 | −$6,007 | −$3,362 |
| Oct 1 | −$7,054 | −$6,986 | −$6,101 | −$3,405 |
| Oct 2 | −$7,563 | −$7,495 | −$6,610 | −$3,914 |
| Oct 3 | −$7,658 | −$7,587 | −$6,655 | −$4,127 |
| Oct 4 | −$7,676 | −$7,609 | −$6,685 | −$4,175 |
| Oct 5 | −$8,012 | −$7,926 | −$6,799 | −$5,620 |
| Oct 6 | −$7,942 | −$7,856 | −$6,729 | −$5,550 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$7,942 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 38% |
| 1 min | −$7,856 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 37% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$6,729 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 34% |
| 30 min | −$5,550 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 41% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$5,956
- Delay cost−$393.14
- Slippage helped+$65.11
- Fees (buys $392.17 · sells $52.55)−$444.72
- Follower PnL−$6,729
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 446 | −$6,729 | −39.1% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x1ea0…ae77Leader lost money at this size
- 0x351e…bfa6Leader lost money at this size
- 0x629c…6c01Leader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.