0x168a…0d24 lost money; a simulated copy at a 5-minute delay lost $9,604
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x168a…0d24's 183 buys across 11 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$9,604. The leader lost $5,967 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $3,230, slippage $33.72 and fees $372.67. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $4,810 at once across 157 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 35 estimated: 35 high · 0 medium · 0 low How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$11,320; 1 min: −$10,716; 5 min: −$9,604; 30 min: −$13,182. Max drawdown −$11,864 (5 min, Oct 18). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | −$1,133 | −$1,133 | −$1,134 | −$1,138 |
| Sep 25 | −$1,133 | −$1,133 | −$1,134 | −$1,138 |
| Sep 26 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Sep 27 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Sep 28 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Sep 29 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Sep 30 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Oct 1 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Oct 2 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Oct 3 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Oct 4 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Oct 5 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Oct 6 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Oct 7 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Oct 8 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Oct 9 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Oct 10 | −$1,235 | −$1,235 | −$1,236 | −$1,241 |
| Oct 11 | −$2,258 | −$2,257 | −$2,258 | −$1,984 |
| Oct 12 | −$2,258 | −$2,257 | −$2,258 | −$1,984 |
| Oct 13 | −$7,070 | −$6,772 | −$6,933 | −$7,543 |
| Oct 14 | −$7,070 | −$6,772 | −$6,933 | −$7,543 |
| Oct 15 | −$7,070 | −$6,772 | −$6,933 | −$7,543 |
| Oct 16 | −$7,070 | −$6,772 | −$6,933 | −$7,543 |
| Oct 17 | −$7,070 | −$6,772 | −$6,933 | −$7,543 |
| Oct 18 | −$13,701 | −$13,088 | −$11,864 | −$14,511 |
| Oct 19 | −$13,701 | −$13,088 | −$11,864 | −$14,511 |
| Oct 20 | −$11,320 | −$10,716 | −$9,604 | −$13,182 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$11,320 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 91% |
| 1 min | −$10,716 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 87% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$9,604 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 81% |
| 30 min | −$13,182 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 96% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$5,967
- Delay cost−$3,230
- Slippage−$33.72
- Fees (buys $372.67 · sells $0.00)−$372.67
- Follower PnL−$9,604
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 183 | −$9,604 | −63.8% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x4be1…aa70Leader lost money at this size
- 0x6fa7…907eKeeps 31% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0314…bb73Leader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.