0x0314…bb73 lost money; a simulated copy at a 5-minute delay lost $2,094
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x0314…bb73's 120 buys across 70 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$2,094. The leader lost $1,197 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $571.98, slippage $95.31 and fees $229.56. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $1,500 at once across 113 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 18 estimated: 16 high · 0 medium · 2 low · 2 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$2,200; 1 min: −$2,377; 5 min: −$2,094; 30 min: −$3,548. Max drawdown −$2,666 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | +$33.66 | +$180.75 | +$95.96 | −$348.96 |
| Sep 23 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Sep 24 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Sep 25 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Sep 26 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Sep 27 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Sep 28 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Sep 29 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Sep 30 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 1 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 2 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 3 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 4 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 5 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 6 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 7 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 8 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 9 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 10 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 11 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 12 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 13 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 14 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 15 | −$176.71 | −$30.80 | +$85.85 | −$348.97 |
| Oct 16 | −$161.13 | −$15.22 | +$101.43 | −$336.85 |
| Oct 17 | −$406.58 | −$270.65 | +$14.97 | −$582.67 |
| Oct 18 | −$304.87 | −$179.67 | +$135.12 | −$586.26 |
| Oct 19 | −$52.39 | +$73.40 | +$532.03 | −$573.23 |
| Oct 20 | −$118.25 | −$3.18 | +$509.61 | −$776.70 |
| Oct 21 | −$366.94 | −$232.12 | +$167.52 | −$1,431 |
| Oct 22 | −$540.25 | −$390.28 | +$14.83 | −$1,533 |
| Oct 23 | −$42.74 | −$226.84 | +$80.32 | −$1,476 |
| Oct 24 | −$1,720 | −$1,913 | −$1,613 | −$3,150 |
| Oct 25 | −$2,200 | −$2,377 | −$2,094 | −$3,548 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$2,200 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 86% |
| 1 min | −$2,377 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 86% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$2,094 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 83% |
| 30 min | −$3,548 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 64% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$1,197
- Delay cost−$571.98
- Slippage−$95.31
- Fees (buys $184.80 · sells $44.76)−$229.56
- Follower PnL−$2,094
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 120 | −$2,094 | −20.2% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7a75…d288Leader lost money at this size
- 0xe9b7…ce7bKeeps −3212% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x2798…0b7dLeader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.