0x4be1…aa70 lost money; a simulated copy at a 5-minute delay lost $3,190
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x4be1…aa70's 335 buys across 27 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$3,190. The leader lost $1,655 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $736.63, slippage helped by +$95.38 and fees $893.16. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $12,403 at once across 286 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 47 estimated: 1 high · 35 medium · 11 low · 15 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$4,310; 1 min: −$4,635; 5 min: −$3,190; 30 min: +$820.05. Max drawdown −$11,798 (5 min, Oct 8). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | −$205.22 | −$205.83 | −$206.29 | −$208.36 |
| Sep 25 | −$41.78 | −$64.12 | −$62.53 | −$234.75 |
| Sep 26 | −$41.78 | −$64.12 | −$62.53 | −$234.75 |
| Sep 27 | −$41.78 | −$64.12 | −$62.53 | −$234.75 |
| Sep 28 | −$41.78 | −$64.12 | −$62.53 | −$234.75 |
| Sep 29 | −$41.78 | −$64.12 | −$62.53 | −$234.75 |
| Sep 30 | −$41.78 | −$64.12 | −$62.53 | −$234.75 |
| Oct 1 | −$41.78 | −$64.12 | −$62.53 | −$234.75 |
| Oct 2 | −$453.88 | −$383.78 | −$370.97 | −$544.39 |
| Oct 3 | −$9,665 | −$9,447 | −$8,988 | −$5,639 |
| Oct 4 | −$9,665 | −$9,447 | −$8,988 | −$5,639 |
| Oct 5 | −$9,665 | −$9,447 | −$8,988 | −$5,639 |
| Oct 6 | −$9,665 | −$9,447 | −$8,988 | −$5,639 |
| Oct 7 | −$9,665 | −$9,447 | −$8,988 | −$5,639 |
| Oct 8 | −$6,840 | −$6,678 | −$6,128 | −$5,384 |
| Oct 9 | −$2,179 | −$2,497 | −$1,143 | +$1,555 |
| Oct 10 | −$2,179 | −$2,497 | −$1,143 | +$1,555 |
| Oct 11 | −$2,179 | −$2,497 | −$1,143 | +$1,555 |
| Oct 12 | −$2,179 | −$2,497 | −$1,143 | +$1,555 |
| Oct 13 | −$2,179 | −$2,497 | −$1,143 | +$1,555 |
| Oct 14 | −$2,179 | −$2,497 | −$1,143 | +$1,555 |
| Oct 15 | −$2,179 | −$2,497 | −$1,143 | +$1,555 |
| Oct 16 | −$1,199 | −$1,523 | −$87.16 | +$2,520 |
| Oct 17 | −$1,199 | −$1,523 | −$87.16 | +$2,520 |
| Oct 18 | −$4,310 | −$4,635 | −$3,190 | +$820.05 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$4,310 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 81% |
| 1 min | −$4,635 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 80% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$3,190 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 81% |
| 30 min | +$820.05 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 64% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$1,655
- Delay cost−$736.63
- Slippage helped+$95.38
- Fees (buys $892.69 · sells $0.47)−$893.16
- Follower PnL−$3,190
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 335 | −$3,190 | −11.5% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x6fa7…907eKeeps 31% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0314…bb73Leader lost money at this size
- 0x7a75…d288Leader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.