In backtest, only 14% of 0x58b3…653c's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional5 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:09 UTC.
Only 14% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 11% only partly; the +$26,408 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x58b3…653c's 4,423 buys across 170 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$26,408 — more than the leader's +$9,643 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (273.9%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$18,146, slippage helped by +$260.55 and fees $1,641. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $62,618 at once across 1,108 positions.
You're in the queue
This wallet hasn't been backtested yet and other backtests are running ahead of it. We'll check again automatically — keep this page open.
- Your position
- –
- Estimated wait
- –
Checking again…
The numbers below are from the last result we loaded; they update when the new one is ready.
Or get it by email
Leave your email and we'll send you the link as soon as this backtest is ready. You can close the page.
We'll email you the link when it's ready
Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 2,835 estimated: 1,027 high · 1,264 medium · 544 low · 881 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$23,936; 1 min: +$23,773; 5 min: +$26,408; 30 min: +$28,455. Max drawdown −$3,304 (5 min, Oct 4). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$107.81 | −$102.78 | −$35.89 | −$139.58 |
| Sep 22 | −$1,032 | −$1,187 | −$986.07 | −$907.54 |
| Sep 23 | +$575.22 | +$949.75 | +$1,539 | +$1,311 |
| Sep 24 | +$1,048 | +$1,327 | +$2,275 | +$1,541 |
| Sep 25 | +$2,159 | +$2,254 | +$3,757 | +$2,006 |
| Sep 26 | +$2,159 | +$2,254 | +$3,757 | +$2,006 |
| Sep 27 | +$2,272 | +$2,353 | +$3,853 | +$2,035 |
| Sep 28 | +$2,313 | +$2,395 | +$3,867 | +$2,045 |
| Sep 29 | +$3,229 | +$3,252 | +$4,636 | +$2,502 |
| Sep 30 | +$4,058 | +$4,275 | +$5,157 | +$3,751 |
| Oct 1 | +$4,294 | +$4,503 | +$5,505 | +$4,269 |
| Oct 2 | +$2,189 | +$2,413 | +$2,864 | +$2,780 |
| Oct 3 | +$1,908 | +$2,109 | +$2,820 | +$2,935 |
| Oct 4 | +$10,075 | +$9,798 | +$9,901 | +$12,720 |
| Oct 5 | +$12,066 | +$11,363 | +$11,676 | +$15,572 |
| Oct 6 | +$11,027 | +$10,464 | +$11,585 | +$14,692 |
| Oct 7 | +$10,965 | +$10,319 | +$11,385 | +$14,672 |
| Oct 8 | +$10,891 | +$10,300 | +$11,361 | +$14,654 |
| Oct 9 | +$10,685 | +$10,298 | +$11,259 | +$14,535 |
| Oct 10 | +$10,200 | +$9,712 | +$10,879 | +$14,586 |
| Oct 11 | +$10,895 | +$10,380 | +$11,453 | +$14,926 |
| Oct 12 | +$10,272 | +$10,066 | +$10,983 | +$14,494 |
| Oct 13 | +$10,189 | +$10,033 | +$10,872 | +$14,231 |
| Oct 14 | +$10,848 | +$10,698 | +$11,597 | +$14,631 |
| Oct 15 | +$10,327 | +$10,339 | +$12,225 | +$14,463 |
| Oct 16 | +$10,425 | +$9,913 | +$11,756 | +$14,151 |
| Oct 17 | +$10,601 | +$10,090 | +$11,937 | +$14,974 |
| Oct 18 | +$15,476 | +$14,853 | +$17,484 | +$20,330 |
| Oct 19 | +$15,864 | +$15,752 | +$17,940 | +$20,918 |
| Oct 20 | +$16,872 | +$16,581 | +$19,845 | +$20,373 |
| Oct 21 | +$18,407 | +$18,334 | +$21,694 | +$21,646 |
| Oct 22 | +$18,350 | +$18,291 | +$21,618 | +$21,591 |
| Oct 23 | +$18,332 | +$18,274 | +$21,605 | +$21,589 |
| Oct 24 | +$18,829 | +$18,977 | +$21,976 | +$22,315 |
| Oct 25 | +$23,848 | +$23,540 | +$26,036 | +$28,234 |
| Oct 26 | +$23,936 | +$23,773 | +$26,408 | +$28,455 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$23,936 | 100%+ (Exactly 248.2%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 17% |
| 1 min | +$23,773 | 100%+ (Exactly 246.5%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 16% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$26,408 | 100%+ (Exactly 273.9%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 14% |
| 30 min | +$28,455 | 100%+ (Exactly 295.1%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 13% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$9,643
- Delay helped+$18,146
- Slippage helped+$260.55
- Fees (buys $1,509 · sells $131.60)−$1,641
- Follower PnL+$26,408
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 4,183 | +$26,224 | +38.2% |
| Crypto | 169 | +$558.87 | +74.6% |
| Sports | 66 | −$375.04 | −11.4% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xdb40…3612Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x6114…cff0Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x80a4…22ccBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.