In backtest, only 18% of 0xdb40…3612's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 18% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 10% only partly; the +$946.21 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xdb40…3612's 411 buys across 82 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$946.21 — more than the leader's +$811.61 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (116.6%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$393.24, slippage $218.60 and fees $40.04. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $4,441 at once across 114 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 270 estimated: 82 high · 154 medium · 34 low · 65 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$795.89; 1 min: +$735.79; 5 min: +$946.21; 30 min: +$800.17. Max drawdown −$73.68 (5 min, Oct 8). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$3.04 | +$0.78 | +$6.23 | +$19.27 |
| Sep 22 | +$397.31 | +$388.85 | +$552.97 | +$186.23 |
| Sep 23 | +$407.98 | +$399.43 | +$558.79 | +$186.23 |
| Sep 24 | +$418.32 | +$407.23 | +$566.38 | +$193.89 |
| Sep 25 | +$418.32 | +$407.23 | +$566.38 | +$193.89 |
| Sep 26 | +$430.26 | +$412.72 | +$571.65 | +$199.38 |
| Sep 27 | +$430.30 | +$412.72 | +$571.65 | +$204.44 |
| Sep 28 | +$455.64 | +$431.69 | +$591.34 | +$222.72 |
| Sep 29 | +$470.52 | +$454.29 | +$626.82 | +$252.74 |
| Sep 30 | +$474.51 | +$458.28 | +$626.82 | +$259.60 |
| Oct 1 | +$496.27 | +$479.63 | +$645.65 | +$260.44 |
| Oct 2 | +$511.71 | +$496.15 | +$643.27 | +$265.50 |
| Oct 3 | +$495.23 | +$468.73 | +$620.29 | +$287.13 |
| Oct 4 | +$517.70 | +$509.29 | +$658.81 | +$312.54 |
| Oct 5 | +$517.70 | +$509.29 | +$658.81 | +$312.92 |
| Oct 6 | +$441.12 | +$432.35 | +$623.23 | +$312.92 |
| Oct 7 | +$494.40 | +$483.24 | +$667.32 | +$312.92 |
| Oct 8 | +$449.09 | +$445.10 | +$616.37 | +$330.10 |
| Oct 9 | +$468.25 | +$463.12 | +$634.35 | +$337.21 |
| Oct 10 | +$468.25 | +$463.12 | +$634.35 | +$338.40 |
| Oct 11 | +$476.81 | +$471.45 | +$639.99 | +$456.51 |
| Oct 12 | +$519.73 | +$504.85 | +$662.49 | +$467.25 |
| Oct 13 | +$519.70 | +$504.85 | +$662.49 | +$467.25 |
| Oct 14 | +$723.18 | +$686.00 | +$866.52 | +$685.93 |
| Oct 15 | +$754.22 | +$705.60 | +$885.80 | +$689.79 |
| Oct 16 | +$762.40 | +$706.68 | +$891.31 | +$696.87 |
| Oct 17 | +$762.25 | +$706.54 | +$891.31 | +$696.87 |
| Oct 18 | +$762.25 | +$706.54 | +$891.31 | +$696.87 |
| Oct 19 | +$785.56 | +$725.04 | +$935.46 | +$791.24 |
| Oct 20 | +$785.56 | +$725.04 | +$935.46 | +$791.24 |
| Oct 21 | +$793.82 | +$733.71 | +$944.14 | +$799.92 |
| Oct 22 | +$793.82 | +$733.71 | +$944.14 | +$799.92 |
| Oct 23 | +$793.82 | +$733.71 | +$944.14 | +$799.92 |
| Oct 24 | +$793.82 | +$733.71 | +$944.14 | +$799.92 |
| Oct 25 | +$795.89 | +$735.79 | +$946.21 | +$800.17 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$795.89 | 98.1% | 20% |
| 1 min | +$735.79 | 90.7% | 18% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$946.21 | 100%+ (Exactly 116.6%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 18% |
| 30 min | +$800.17 | 98.6% | 16% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$811.61
- Delay helped+$393.24
- Slippage−$218.60
- Fees (buys $39.05 · sells $0.99)−$40.04
- Follower PnL+$946.21
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Politics | 311 | +$967.85 | +14.1% |
| Geopolitics | 98 | −$21.64 | −1.3% |
| Finance | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Politics traders
- 0x55b4…80eaBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x24c8…23e1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x614d…1546Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x6114…cff0Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x80a4…22ccBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xe7db…c00cBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Politics copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.