In backtest, copying 0x615b…9591 beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x615b…9591's 210 buys across 183 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$403.81 — more than the leader's +$37.39 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (1079.8%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$1,307, slippage $403.58 and fees $537.35. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $2,510 at once across 160 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 77 estimated: 0 high · 49 medium · 28 low · 10 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$480.52; 1 min: +$1,092; 5 min: +$403.81; 30 min: +$28.10. Max drawdown −$898.30 (5 min, Sep 30). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$147.02 | −$157.04 | +$87.61 | +$62.40 |
| Sep 22 | −$56.90 | −$185.53 | +$114.76 | +$206.30 |
| Sep 23 | −$56.90 | −$185.53 | +$114.76 | +$206.30 |
| Sep 24 | −$56.90 | −$185.53 | +$114.76 | +$206.30 |
| Sep 25 | −$56.90 | −$185.53 | +$114.76 | +$206.30 |
| Sep 26 | +$136.82 | −$5.10 | +$306.36 | +$606.33 |
| Sep 27 | −$338.67 | −$380.46 | −$7.97 | +$635.30 |
| Sep 28 | −$441.36 | −$483.17 | −$110.66 | +$532.35 |
| Sep 29 | −$583.56 | −$570.02 | −$316.79 | +$538.98 |
| Sep 30 | −$320.96 | −$362.22 | −$196.99 | +$353.74 |
| Oct 1 | +$534.61 | +$747.53 | +$497.14 | +$666.10 |
| Oct 2 | +$307.86 | +$841.72 | +$456.91 | +$623.51 |
| Oct 3 | +$102.62 | +$636.45 | +$251.65 | +$388.37 |
| Oct 4 | +$182.92 | +$716.75 | +$344.94 | +$514.30 |
| Oct 5 | −$56.43 | +$426.35 | −$108.54 | +$89.57 |
| Oct 6 | +$432.24 | +$1,015 | +$513.15 | −$1.14 |
| Oct 7 | +$675.50 | +$1,289 | +$601.33 | +$129.82 |
| Oct 8 | +$675.50 | +$1,289 | +$601.33 | +$129.82 |
| Oct 9 | +$675.50 | +$1,289 | +$601.33 | +$129.82 |
| Oct 10 | +$571.56 | +$1,185 | +$497.48 | +$129.82 |
| Oct 11 | +$571.56 | +$1,185 | +$497.48 | +$129.82 |
| Oct 12 | +$571.56 | +$1,185 | +$497.48 | +$129.82 |
| Oct 13 | +$571.56 | +$1,185 | +$497.48 | +$129.82 |
| Oct 14 | +$571.56 | +$1,185 | +$497.48 | +$129.82 |
| Oct 15 | +$571.56 | +$1,185 | +$497.48 | +$129.82 |
| Oct 16 | +$571.56 | +$1,185 | +$497.48 | +$129.82 |
| Oct 17 | +$571.56 | +$1,185 | +$497.48 | +$129.82 |
| Oct 18 | +$571.56 | +$1,185 | +$497.48 | +$129.82 |
| Oct 19 | +$571.56 | +$1,185 | +$497.48 | +$129.82 |
| Oct 20 | +$571.56 | +$1,185 | +$497.48 | +$129.82 |
| Oct 21 | +$480.52 | +$1,092 | +$403.81 | +$28.10 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$480.52 | 100%+ (Exactly 1285.0%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 51% |
| 1 min | +$1,092 | 100%+ (Exactly 2919.4%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 50% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$403.81 | 100%+ (Exactly 1079.8%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 53% |
| 30 min | +$28.10 | 75.2% | 38% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$37.39
- Delay helped+$1,307
- Slippage−$403.58
- Fees (buys $375.66 · sells $161.69)−$537.35
- Follower PnL+$403.81
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 210 | +$403.81 | +3.2% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xcdcc…935aKeeps 85% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xd20f…2f35Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xed57…e0a0Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.