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In backtest, copying 0x7418…251f turns a profit into a loss at a 5-minute delay

Sports 0x741889695931a255adbdba0b0d169c17e7ac251f Profile on Polymarket

A copier who mirrored 0x7418…251f's 400 buys across 319 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$520.56, while the leader made +$1,612 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $1,831, slippage helped by +$126.56 and fees $427.65 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $400.00 at once across 275 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
−$520.56
Incl. estimates −$259.47
Max drawdown −$535.81
ROI −2.0% on total cost
Returns kept
−32.3%
Leader, same size +$1,612
follower ÷ leader
Peak capital in use
$400.00
Incl. estimates $444.55
400 copied buys · $26,507 total cost
Fill rate
65%
Incl. estimates 77%
259 filled · 16 partial · 125 no buyers
Backtest score
31/100
400 buys · 319 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 75 estimated: 6 high · 30 medium · 39 low · 66 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$536

Final values: 0 min: −$12.86; 1 min: −$278.19; 5 min: −$520.56; 30 min: −$237.70. Max drawdown −$535.81 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 22+$3.05−$5.98−$2.79+$1.42
Sep 23+$3.05−$5.98−$2.79+$1.42
Sep 24−$24.21−$50.71−$10.76−$19.68
Sep 25−$25.44−$59.95−$14.60−$26.99
Sep 26−$3.44−$70.87−$15.56−$32.02
Sep 27−$170.36−$3.29−$134.97−$117.99
Sep 28−$179.42−$15.44−$143.13−$179.90
Sep 29−$179.42−$15.44−$143.13−$179.90
Sep 30−$179.42−$15.44−$143.13−$179.90
Oct 1−$179.42−$15.44−$143.13−$179.90
Oct 2−$179.42−$15.44−$143.13−$179.90
Oct 3−$179.42−$15.44−$143.13−$179.90
Oct 4−$196.93−$34.72−$159.90−$181.64
Oct 5−$194.04−$27.20−$159.76−$181.64
Oct 6−$193.95−$27.08−$159.76−$181.64
Oct 7−$193.95−$27.08−$159.76−$181.64
Oct 8−$193.95−$27.08−$159.76−$181.64
Oct 9−$207.93+$19.30−$315.28−$197.54
Oct 10−$226.62−$82.00−$380.01−$214.02
Oct 11−$107.28+$24.72−$263.67−$108.11
Oct 12−$96.34−$5.18−$285.45−$109.21
Oct 13−$43.74−$15.08−$311.01−$164.14
Oct 14−$34.96−$19.90−$314.62−$168.24
Oct 15−$34.96−$19.90−$314.62−$168.24
Oct 16−$48.34−$39.58−$308.37−$191.42
Oct 17−$60.68−$69.29−$291.64−$141.24
Oct 18−$186.44−$199.12−$424.99−$154.40
Oct 19−$193.21−$209.85−$434.23−$159.92
Oct 20−$178.88−$212.34−$436.72−$161.96
Oct 21−$154.99−$225.11−$462.58−$251.51
Oct 22−$154.99−$225.11−$462.58−$251.51
Oct 23−$138.00−$233.17−$479.14−$277.65
Oct 24+$24.24−$253.86−$531.87−$246.84
Oct 25−$12.86−$278.19−$520.56−$237.70

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$12.86−0.8%88%
1 min−$278.19−17.3%77%
5 min (selected)−$520.56−32.3%65%
30 min−$237.70−14.8%43%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size+$1,612
  2. Delay cost−$1,831
  3. Slippage helped+$126.56
  4. Fees (buys $224.17 · sells $203.48)−$427.65
  5. Follower PnL−$520.56

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Sports400−$520.56−2.0%

Data version 12086 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 1 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
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More Sports traders

See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.