In backtest, only 34% of 0x9243…658e's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 34% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 17% only partly; the −$83.54 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x9243…658e's 735 buys across 144 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$83.54, while the leader made +$1,590 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $1,038, slippage helped by +$9.23 and fees $644.36 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $5,939 at once across 378 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 431 estimated: 323 high · 90 medium · 18 low · 51 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$383.03; 1 min: +$1,820; 5 min: −$83.54; 30 min: −$2,527. Max drawdown −$4,517 (5 min, Oct 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 24 | −$612.90 | −$383.17 | −$348.14 | −$14.88 |
| Sep 25 | −$829.85 | −$528.51 | −$562.50 | −$381.18 |
| Sep 26 | −$1,808 | −$1,344 | −$445.90 | −$171.42 |
| Sep 27 | −$1,046 | −$684.59 | −$8.51 | −$517.80 |
| Sep 28 | −$1,050 | −$723.68 | −$92.39 | −$511.73 |
| Sep 29 | −$1,050 | −$723.68 | −$92.39 | −$511.73 |
| Sep 30 | −$1,050 | −$723.68 | −$92.39 | −$511.73 |
| Oct 1 | −$2,387 | −$1,480 | −$701.55 | −$1,428 |
| Oct 2 | −$2,387 | −$1,480 | −$701.55 | −$1,428 |
| Oct 3 | −$2,937 | −$1,783 | −$980.03 | −$1,551 |
| Oct 4 | −$2,999 | −$1,851 | −$990.08 | −$1,683 |
| Oct 5 | −$3,315 | −$2,209 | −$1,133 | −$1,797 |
| Oct 6 | −$3,315 | −$2,209 | −$1,133 | −$1,797 |
| Oct 7 | −$3,315 | −$2,209 | −$1,133 | −$1,797 |
| Oct 8 | −$3,315 | −$2,209 | −$1,133 | −$1,797 |
| Oct 9 | −$3,736 | −$2,275 | −$1,255 | −$1,932 |
| Oct 10 | −$530.39 | +$508.04 | +$1,156 | −$1,214 |
| Oct 11 | +$1,609 | +$2,550 | +$2,605 | +$165.20 |
| Oct 12 | +$1,609 | +$2,550 | +$2,605 | +$165.20 |
| Oct 13 | +$1,027 | +$2,404 | +$2,631 | −$63.56 |
| Oct 14 | +$4,161 | +$4,923 | +$2,932 | −$11.86 |
| Oct 15 | +$4,101 | +$4,803 | +$2,797 | +$27.51 |
| Oct 16 | +$4,101 | +$4,803 | +$2,797 | +$27.51 |
| Oct 17 | +$5,349 | +$5,947 | +$3,808 | +$571.68 |
| Oct 18 | +$47.13 | +$2,510 | +$2,362 | −$1,612 |
| Oct 19 | +$2,262 | +$4,210 | +$3,116 | −$102.31 |
| Oct 20 | +$4,151 | +$5,502 | +$3,739 | +$870.19 |
| Oct 21 | +$4,151 | +$5,502 | +$3,739 | +$870.19 |
| Oct 22 | +$4,151 | +$5,502 | +$3,739 | +$870.19 |
| Oct 23 | +$4,151 | +$5,502 | +$3,739 | +$870.19 |
| Oct 24 | +$3,911 | +$5,480 | +$3,497 | +$1,452 |
| Oct 25 | +$383.03 | +$1,820 | −$83.54 | −$2,527 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$383.03 | 24.1% | 61% |
| 1 min | +$1,820 | 100%+ (Exactly 114.5%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 48% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$83.54 | −5.3% | 34% |
| 30 min | −$2,527 | −159% | 25% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$1,590
- Delay cost−$1,038
- Slippage helped+$9.23
- Fees (buys $644.36 · sells $0.00)−$644.36
- Follower PnL−$83.54
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 735 | −$83.54 | −0.3% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xde7b…5f4bLeader lost money at this size
- 0x14af…ca2cLeader lost money at this size
- 0x1ea0…ae77Leader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.