In backtest, only 29% of 0x9a3f…914a's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional4 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:19 UTC.
Only 29% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 11% only partly; the +$1,401 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x9a3f…914a's 3,311 buys across 637 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 11% of the leader's returns: +$1,401 against +$12,568 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $10,234, slippage helped by +$1,097 and fees $2,030. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $23,558 at once across 1,299 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,435 estimated: 601 high · 530 medium · 304 low · 849 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$3,678; 1 min: +$4,681; 5 min: +$1,401; 30 min: +$1,679. Max drawdown −$8,718 (5 min, Oct 17). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$336.71 | +$184.79 | +$48.63 | +$22.53 |
| Sep 22 | −$124.35 | +$358.91 | +$659.41 | +$1,007 |
| Sep 23 | +$36.63 | −$60.84 | −$65.99 | +$645.53 |
| Sep 24 | −$2,092 | −$2,200 | −$1,780 | −$271.17 |
| Sep 25 | −$1,980 | −$2,088 | −$1,679 | −$177.12 |
| Sep 26 | −$1,984 | −$2,086 | −$1,676 | −$175.03 |
| Sep 27 | −$1,164 | −$1,456 | −$1,259 | −$164.27 |
| Sep 28 | −$751.90 | −$992.90 | −$1,008 | −$63.64 |
| Sep 29 | +$1,684 | +$1,142 | −$195.23 | −$146.61 |
| Sep 30 | +$1,417 | +$706.62 | −$749.30 | −$102.68 |
| Oct 1 | +$1,195 | +$406.38 | −$1,170 | −$367.36 |
| Oct 2 | −$19.37 | −$725.03 | −$2,123 | −$2,032 |
| Oct 3 | −$521.88 | −$1,285 | −$2,718 | −$2,425 |
| Oct 4 | −$1,249 | −$2,022 | −$3,463 | −$3,042 |
| Oct 5 | −$411.93 | −$1,263 | −$2,827 | −$1,900 |
| Oct 6 | −$648.40 | −$1,220 | −$3,033 | −$2,123 |
| Oct 7 | −$585.14 | −$1,236 | −$3,213 | −$2,435 |
| Oct 8 | −$428.75 | −$1,094 | −$3,049 | −$2,161 |
| Oct 9 | −$351.87 | −$960.80 | −$2,885 | −$2,313 |
| Oct 10 | +$239.70 | −$382.55 | −$2,567 | −$2,332 |
| Oct 11 | +$387.73 | −$202.20 | −$2,424 | −$2,295 |
| Oct 12 | −$655.39 | −$1,300 | −$3,511 | −$2,991 |
| Oct 13 | +$1,841 | +$1,202 | −$1,588 | −$2,333 |
| Oct 14 | +$2,396 | +$1,738 | −$1,022 | −$1,983 |
| Oct 15 | −$1,628 | −$2,016 | −$5,078 | −$3,418 |
| Oct 16 | −$3,016 | −$3,051 | −$5,245 | −$3,638 |
| Oct 17 | +$174.38 | +$198.61 | −$1,640 | −$2,254 |
| Oct 18 | +$1,087 | +$1,698 | −$1,071 | −$1,393 |
| Oct 19 | +$1,754 | +$2,343 | −$914.22 | −$1,381 |
| Oct 20 | +$2,535 | +$3,421 | +$160.40 | +$470.96 |
| Oct 21 | +$4,058 | +$5,267 | +$2,412 | +$2,308 |
| Oct 22 | +$4,796 | +$6,066 | +$3,072 | +$2,837 |
| Oct 23 | +$6,285 | +$7,360 | +$3,861 | +$3,776 |
| Oct 24 | +$6,009 | +$7,082 | +$3,566 | +$3,477 |
| Oct 25 | +$4,152 | +$5,234 | +$1,946 | +$2,081 |
| Oct 26 | +$3,678 | +$4,681 | +$1,401 | +$1,679 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$3,678 | 29.3% | 32% |
| 1 min | +$4,681 | 37.3% | 31% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$1,401 | 11.1% | 29% |
| 30 min | +$1,679 | 13.1% | 20% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$12,568
- Delay cost−$10,234
- Slippage helped+$1,097
- Fees (buys $1,744 · sells $286.04)−$2,030
- Follower PnL+$1,401
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1,614 | −$249.78 | −0.4% |
| Politics | 1,074 | −$748.27 | −2.9% |
| Geopolitics | 279 | +$1,705 | +37.8% |
| Culture | 141 | +$400.13 | +17.5% |
| Tech | 78 | −$115.00 | −4.5% |
| Crypto | 50 | −$153.67 | −26.9% |
| Weather | 45 | +$808.93 | +82.0% |
| Finance | 20 | +$34.51 | +8.2% |
| Economy | 6 | −$280.97 | −104% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xa2f4…6d95Leader lost money at this size
- 0xe53c…e569Keeps 22% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5ca7…d0c4Leader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.