In backtest, only 44% of 0xcb89…a2e8's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 44% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 6% only partly; the −$455.14 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0xcb89…a2e8's 569 buys across 126 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$455.14, while the leader made +$40.83 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $375.79, slippage $17.23 and fees $102.95 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $3,715 at once across 287 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 278 estimated: 85 high · 160 medium · 33 low · 38 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$279.60; 1 min: +$143.70; 5 min: −$455.14; 30 min: −$973.19. Max drawdown −$798.32 (5 min, Oct 23). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$9.74 | −$49.73 | −$28.49 | −$449.56 |
| Sep 22 | −$9.74 | −$49.73 | −$28.49 | −$449.56 |
| Sep 23 | −$8.01 | −$49.45 | −$28.49 | −$449.56 |
| Sep 24 | −$90.48 | −$136.16 | −$121.04 | −$449.56 |
| Sep 25 | −$85.54 | −$133.21 | −$121.04 | −$449.56 |
| Sep 26 | −$35.25 | −$98.05 | −$103.51 | −$449.56 |
| Sep 27 | −$120.67 | −$180.76 | −$222.87 | −$736.96 |
| Sep 28 | −$118.56 | −$180.76 | −$222.87 | −$736.96 |
| Sep 29 | −$88.26 | −$148.42 | −$195.52 | −$723.43 |
| Sep 30 | −$88.15 | −$148.33 | −$195.42 | −$720.66 |
| Oct 1 | −$48.30 | −$101.40 | −$135.47 | −$669.83 |
| Oct 2 | +$68.62 | +$0.05 | −$66.44 | −$639.96 |
| Oct 3 | +$184.37 | +$116.97 | +$35.11 | −$595.29 |
| Oct 4 | +$222.69 | +$146.75 | +$8.24 | −$716.59 |
| Oct 5 | +$346.03 | +$265.74 | +$110.49 | −$625.46 |
| Oct 6 | +$88.61 | −$39.07 | −$399.82 | −$617.06 |
| Oct 7 | +$102.72 | −$26.86 | −$399.74 | −$617.06 |
| Oct 8 | +$102.72 | −$26.86 | −$399.74 | −$617.06 |
| Oct 9 | +$102.72 | −$26.86 | −$399.74 | −$617.06 |
| Oct 10 | +$82.41 | −$47.45 | −$422.62 | −$644.53 |
| Oct 11 | +$95.14 | −$34.72 | −$409.77 | −$640.92 |
| Oct 12 | +$97.21 | −$32.65 | −$407.71 | −$632.67 |
| Oct 13 | +$113.73 | −$25.51 | −$397.64 | −$627.62 |
| Oct 14 | +$115.77 | −$23.28 | −$392.62 | −$627.62 |
| Oct 15 | +$121.78 | −$17.64 | −$382.32 | −$623.02 |
| Oct 16 | +$125.78 | −$13.63 | −$386.70 | −$619.02 |
| Oct 17 | +$135.91 | −$4.05 | −$383.48 | −$605.78 |
| Oct 18 | +$138.28 | −$1.64 | −$380.88 | −$603.37 |
| Oct 19 | +$140.91 | +$1.02 | −$379.78 | −$602.05 |
| Oct 20 | +$139.69 | −$5.99 | −$395.07 | −$595.24 |
| Oct 21 | +$271.48 | +$110.01 | −$289.55 | −$582.81 |
| Oct 22 | +$290.03 | +$127.77 | −$273.06 | −$567.41 |
| Oct 23 | +$237.31 | +$104.35 | −$490.30 | −$985.41 |
| Oct 24 | +$237.11 | +$104.15 | −$489.41 | −$985.41 |
| Oct 25 | +$279.60 | +$143.70 | −$455.14 | −$973.19 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$279.60 | 100%+ (Exactly 684.8%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 50% |
| 1 min | +$143.70 | 100%+ (Exactly 351.9%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 48% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$455.14 | −1115% | 44% |
| 30 min | −$973.19 | −2383% | 24% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$40.83
- Delay cost−$375.79
- Slippage−$17.23
- Fees (buys $79.93 · sells $23.02)−$102.95
- Follower PnL−$455.14
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 288 | −$302.35 | −1.4% |
| Politics | 105 | −$124.72 | −5.2% |
| Geopolitics | 81 | +$46.90 | +3.3% |
| Crypto | 47 | −$27.52 | −6.4% |
| Economy | 24 | −$0.21 | −1.1% |
| Finance | 23 | −$47.24 | −11.8% |
| Weather | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0a77…9d74Leader lost money at this size
- 0xc670…b781Leader lost money at this size
- 0xcbc6…ec62Leader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.