In backtest, only 25% of 0x2294…4cd3's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 25% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 26% only partly; the +$8,216 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x2294…4cd3's 1,192 buys across 151 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$8,216 — more than the leader's +$3,282 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (250.3%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$5,735, slippage helped by +$226.51 and fees $1,027. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $12,059 at once across 608 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 457 estimated: 268 high · 89 medium · 100 low · 338 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$4,256; 1 min: +$3,435; 5 min: +$8,216; 30 min: +$7,103. Max drawdown −$3,639 (5 min, Oct 9). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$366.59 | −$340.88 | −$317.70 | −$8.59 |
| Sep 22 | −$998.71 | −$902.03 | −$820.65 | −$241.66 |
| Sep 23 | −$275.63 | −$264.56 | −$197.48 | +$38.98 |
| Sep 24 | −$490.74 | −$443.05 | −$245.56 | −$8.21 |
| Sep 25 | +$590.86 | +$587.94 | +$413.12 | +$742.73 |
| Sep 26 | +$623.04 | +$592.50 | +$409.01 | +$740.87 |
| Sep 27 | +$506.51 | +$460.36 | +$259.96 | +$672.88 |
| Sep 28 | +$941.62 | +$859.13 | +$744.28 | +$1,340 |
| Sep 29 | +$771.51 | +$672.63 | +$601.02 | +$1,155 |
| Sep 30 | −$222.31 | −$301.45 | −$190.49 | +$284.56 |
| Oct 1 | −$936.08 | −$1,024 | −$1,074 | −$50.70 |
| Oct 2 | −$919.10 | −$1,024 | −$1,039 | −$26.70 |
| Oct 3 | −$327.37 | −$370.25 | −$269.72 | +$879.32 |
| Oct 4 | −$199.45 | −$343.56 | −$313.32 | +$874.46 |
| Oct 5 | −$729.74 | −$817.94 | −$531.99 | +$426.00 |
| Oct 6 | −$406.66 | −$422.11 | −$650.78 | +$602.58 |
| Oct 7 | −$1,286 | −$1,324 | −$1,656 | +$330.24 |
| Oct 8 | −$1,931 | −$1,963 | −$2,205 | −$70.80 |
| Oct 9 | −$1,360 | −$1,220 | −$1,480 | +$1,394 |
| Oct 10 | −$1,475 | −$1,335 | −$1,629 | +$1,145 |
| Oct 11 | −$237.61 | −$99.60 | −$338.94 | +$2,238 |
| Oct 12 | −$272.64 | −$132.51 | −$290.74 | +$2,197 |
| Oct 13 | +$1,846 | +$1,346 | +$797.30 | +$2,682 |
| Oct 14 | +$776.27 | +$236.56 | −$333.86 | +$1,610 |
| Oct 15 | +$764.41 | +$230.81 | −$202.02 | +$1,535 |
| Oct 16 | +$512.98 | −$56.31 | +$217.11 | +$2,342 |
| Oct 17 | +$981.31 | +$395.94 | +$637.50 | +$2,302 |
| Oct 18 | +$1,277 | +$614.40 | +$559.66 | +$2,327 |
| Oct 19 | +$1,353 | +$605.32 | +$448.15 | +$3,322 |
| Oct 20 | +$2,883 | +$2,384 | +$2,274 | +$5,670 |
| Oct 21 | +$1,571 | +$1,003 | +$1,129 | +$5,392 |
| Oct 22 | +$1,547 | +$931.29 | +$1,186 | +$5,459 |
| Oct 23 | +$1,540 | +$927.62 | +$1,199 | +$5,485 |
| Oct 24 | +$1,556 | +$897.35 | +$2,054 | +$5,489 |
| Oct 25 | +$4,256 | +$3,435 | +$8,216 | +$7,103 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$4,256 | 100%+ (Exactly 129.7%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 26% |
| 1 min | +$3,435 | 100%+ (Exactly 104.7%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 24% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$8,216 | 100%+ (Exactly 250.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 25% |
| 30 min | +$7,103 | 100%+ (Exactly 216.4%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 19% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$3,282
- Delay helped+$5,735
- Slippage helped+$226.51
- Fees (buys $1,023 · sells $4.05)−$1,027
- Follower PnL+$8,216
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1,192 | +$8,216 | +21.9% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x02b4…7092Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xbeb1…4687Keeps 92% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x4f30…1e29Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.