In backtest, only 36% of 0x506a…bd4e's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 36% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 7% only partly; the +$8,707 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x506a…bd4e's 297 buys across 88 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have made +$8,707 — more than the leader's +$2,190 at the same size, so the copier kept all of the leader's returns and more (397.6%). That happens when prices keep moving the leader's way after they buy and a later entry ends up cheaper: the delay helped by +$7,858, slippage $1,053 and fees $288.56. A small sample can flip this, so compare the other delays and the trades below. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $3,839 at once across 127 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 104 estimated: 21 high · 63 medium · 20 low · 82 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$7,168; 1 min: +$6,967; 5 min: +$8,707; 30 min: +$13,750. Max drawdown −$1,316 (5 min, Sep 22). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | −$1,359 | −$1,353 | −$1,316 | −$819.78 |
| Sep 23 | −$1,362 | −$1,066 | −$614.84 | −$528.33 |
| Sep 24 | −$946.88 | −$546.38 | −$95.74 | −$152.82 |
| Sep 25 | −$946.88 | −$546.38 | −$95.74 | −$152.82 |
| Sep 26 | −$764.24 | −$367.92 | +$0.85 | −$152.82 |
| Sep 27 | −$724.08 | −$327.90 | +$24.08 | +$322.90 |
| Sep 28 | −$698.40 | −$523.06 | +$424.83 | +$256.28 |
| Sep 29 | −$634.76 | −$458.11 | +$478.99 | +$752.82 |
| Sep 30 | −$186.11 | +$5.67 | +$660.93 | +$1,513 |
| Oct 1 | −$185.06 | +$6.76 | +$683.23 | +$1,492 |
| Oct 2 | −$185.06 | +$6.76 | +$683.23 | +$1,492 |
| Oct 3 | +$5,954 | +$6,145 | +$7,870 | +$14,539 |
| Oct 4 | +$5,979 | +$6,179 | +$7,847 | +$14,496 |
| Oct 5 | +$5,966 | +$6,166 | +$7,901 | +$13,994 |
| Oct 6 | +$5,936 | +$6,166 | +$7,901 | +$13,994 |
| Oct 7 | +$6,164 | +$6,401 | +$8,222 | +$14,019 |
| Oct 8 | +$6,185 | +$6,401 | +$8,302 | +$14,022 |
| Oct 9 | +$6,446 | +$6,634 | +$8,331 | +$14,023 |
| Oct 10 | +$6,446 | +$6,634 | +$8,331 | +$14,023 |
| Oct 11 | +$6,440 | +$6,628 | +$8,327 | +$13,929 |
| Oct 12 | +$7,340 | +$7,129 | +$8,708 | +$13,926 |
| Oct 13 | +$7,340 | +$7,129 | +$8,708 | +$13,926 |
| Oct 14 | +$7,340 | +$7,129 | +$8,708 | +$13,926 |
| Oct 15 | +$7,340 | +$7,129 | +$8,708 | +$13,926 |
| Oct 16 | +$7,340 | +$7,129 | +$8,708 | +$13,926 |
| Oct 17 | +$7,340 | +$7,129 | +$8,708 | +$13,926 |
| Oct 18 | +$7,340 | +$7,129 | +$8,708 | +$13,926 |
| Oct 19 | +$7,340 | +$7,129 | +$8,708 | +$13,926 |
| Oct 20 | +$7,340 | +$7,129 | +$8,708 | +$13,926 |
| Oct 21 | +$7,340 | +$7,129 | +$8,708 | +$13,926 |
| Oct 22 | +$7,340 | +$7,129 | +$8,708 | +$13,926 |
| Oct 23 | +$7,296 | +$7,095 | +$8,707 | +$13,750 |
| Oct 24 | +$7,296 | +$7,095 | +$8,707 | +$13,750 |
| Oct 25 | +$7,168 | +$6,967 | +$8,707 | +$13,750 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$7,168 | 100%+ (Exactly 327.3%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 44% |
| 1 min | +$6,967 | 100%+ (Exactly 318.2%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 43% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$8,707 | 100%+ (Exactly 397.6%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 36% |
| 30 min | +$13,750 | 100%+ (Exactly 627.9%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 26% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$2,190
- Delay helped+$7,858
- Slippage−$1,053
- Fees (buys $247.16 · sells $41.40)−$288.56
- Follower PnL+$8,707
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 297 | +$8,707 | +77.6% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x2294…4cd3Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x02b4…7092Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xbeb1…4687Keeps 92% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.