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0x1610…ae49 lost money, yet a simulated copy at a 5-minute delay ended $6,243 up

Sports 0x1610db79f753a80207e1d66716be9e91e627ae49 Profile on Polymarket

Provisional5 buys are too recent to evaluate at this delay: the market data after them isn't indexed yet, so they're left out of these numbers. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:20 UTC.

A copier who mirrored 0x1610…ae49's 3,851 buys across 319 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$6,243. The leader lost $16,771 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$34,092, slippage $2,791 and fees $8,286. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $66,744 at once across 2,849 positions.

Copy delay

Each time the trader buys, the simulation copies this much. Not a total budget.

Key numbers

Follower PnL
+$6,243
Incl. estimates −$44,497
Max drawdown −$40,625
ROI +2.4% on total cost
Returns kept
n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)
Leader, same size −$16,771
leader lost money
Peak capital in use
$66,744
Incl. estimates $106,845
3,846 copied buys · $257,761 total cost
Fill rate
64%
Incl. estimates 90%
2,479 filled · 370 partial · 997 no buyers · 5 pending
Backtest score
31/100
3,851 buys · 319 markets

The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,073 estimated: 213 high · 764 medium · 96 low · 265 thin How we estimate

Cumulative PnL across all copied positions

X axis
Max drawdown −$41k

Final values: 0 min: −$11,617; 1 min: −$8,773; 5 min: +$6,243; 30 min: −$9,902. Max drawdown −$40,625 (5 min, Oct 10). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.

Chart data by day
Day (UTC)0 min1 min5 min30 min
Sep 21+$10,103+$10,591+$10,501+$6,890
Sep 22+$4,464+$4,641+$9,243+$9,540
Sep 23+$409.24+$1,365+$6,567+$8,432
Sep 24−$1,486−$661.11+$4,921+$6,826
Sep 25+$1,159+$2,033+$8,083+$9,220
Sep 26−$2,416−$1,256+$6,164+$5,631
Sep 27−$3,636−$2,484+$5,873+$4,377
Sep 28−$12,601−$11,944−$3,726−$146.99
Sep 29−$14,885−$14,405−$6,040−$726.92
Sep 30−$25,893−$25,709−$18,892−$5,464
Oct 1−$29,047−$28,718−$21,459−$8,758
Oct 2−$29,980−$29,757−$22,452−$10,103
Oct 3−$30,917−$30,815−$23,781−$11,333
Oct 4−$31,817−$31,719−$24,398−$13,773
Oct 5−$32,696−$31,884−$24,368−$14,604
Oct 6−$30,530−$29,648−$22,532−$14,728
Oct 7−$29,006−$28,246−$19,059−$13,004
Oct 8−$29,386−$28,773−$19,505−$12,087
Oct 9−$29,741−$29,155−$20,173−$12,375
Oct 10−$32,507−$31,672−$22,846−$14,928
Oct 11−$39,979−$38,749−$28,042−$14,034
Oct 12−$39,979−$38,749−$28,042−$13,743
Oct 13−$39,201−$37,835−$27,142−$14,158
Oct 14−$36,903−$35,817−$25,913−$14,832
Oct 15−$35,273−$34,382−$25,303−$12,550
Oct 16−$37,090−$35,914−$26,542−$13,322
Oct 17−$37,228−$36,212−$26,380−$13,282
Oct 18−$34,077−$33,232−$22,916−$11,447
Oct 19−$34,077−$33,232−$22,916−$11,447
Oct 20−$34,496−$34,063−$24,008−$11,721
Oct 21−$34,473−$35,365−$25,588−$11,686
Oct 22−$35,826−$34,632−$24,478−$12,203
Oct 23−$31,802−$29,915−$15,852−$4,677
Oct 24−$7,742−$3,547+$9,336−$5,566
Oct 25−$10,622−$7,527+$8,113−$8,910
Oct 26−$11,617−$8,773+$6,243−$9,902

Every delay side by side

DelayFollower PnLKeptFilled
0 min−$11,617n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)69%
1 min−$8,773n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)68%
5 min (selected)+$6,243n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)64%
30 min−$9,902n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep)41%

Where the returns go

  1. Leader PnL at your size−$16,771
  2. Delay helped+$34,092
  3. Slippage−$2,791
  4. Fees (buys $7,642 · sells $644.59)−$8,286
  5. Follower PnL+$6,243

Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.

By category

CategoryTradesFollower PnLROI
Sports3,846+$6,243+2.4%

Data version 12081 · computed Oct 26, 2026 · 76 unsettled positions marked at the last traded price.

Trades

Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.

How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.

Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate

Show
Order
Date Market Leader price Copy price Fill Fill basis Follower PnL Details
Trades load from the live API when this section is visible.
Page 1

More Sports traders

See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.

This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.