0x315f…85c6 lost money, yet a simulated copy at a 5-minute delay ended $532.23 up
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x315f…85c6's 155 buys across 125 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at +$532.23. The leader lost $8.91 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep; the copier only came out ahead because later prices happened to be better: the delay helped by +$1,086, slippage $222.12 and fees $322.35. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $909.39 at once across 130 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 48 estimated: 10 high · 29 medium · 9 low · 2 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$522.12; 1 min: +$319.88; 5 min: +$532.23; 30 min: −$177.11. Max drawdown −$1,026 (5 min, Sep 25). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | +$196.99 | +$84.98 | −$174.43 | −$7.92 |
| Sep 22 | +$280.28 | +$180.10 | −$183.98 | −$107.22 |
| Sep 23 | +$85.46 | −$14.75 | −$292.50 | −$222.53 |
| Sep 24 | −$95.37 | −$191.86 | −$461.63 | −$432.51 |
| Sep 25 | −$258.45 | −$337.37 | −$544.74 | −$608.19 |
| Sep 26 | +$106.04 | +$30.81 | −$160.73 | −$437.37 |
| Sep 27 | +$179.74 | +$100.05 | −$209.46 | −$603.94 |
| Sep 28 | +$175.06 | +$95.37 | −$224.35 | −$607.77 |
| Sep 29 | +$247.57 | +$167.88 | −$143.86 | −$545.24 |
| Sep 30 | +$41.55 | −$38.20 | −$356.06 | −$754.06 |
| Oct 1 | +$12.06 | −$54.61 | −$382.36 | −$528.89 |
| Oct 2 | +$765.50 | +$544.31 | +$766.87 | −$272.03 |
| Oct 3 | +$938.97 | +$699.13 | +$902.11 | −$445.03 |
| Oct 4 | +$918.11 | +$658.28 | +$829.26 | −$448.74 |
| Oct 5 | +$856.75 | +$577.07 | +$746.81 | −$569.92 |
| Oct 6 | +$1,140 | +$1,026 | +$854.13 | −$430.59 |
| Oct 7 | +$1,140 | +$1,026 | +$854.13 | −$430.59 |
| Oct 8 | +$1,032 | +$835.72 | +$642.39 | −$136.84 |
| Oct 9 | +$1,342 | +$1,145 | +$1,008 | −$72.37 |
| Oct 10 | +$1,032 | +$835.10 | +$697.11 | −$176.89 |
| Oct 11 | +$780.98 | +$577.42 | +$433.35 | −$467.12 |
| Oct 12 | +$738.59 | +$536.95 | +$421.89 | −$452.89 |
| Oct 13 | +$646.55 | +$443.41 | +$376.79 | −$583.45 |
| Oct 14 | +$706.25 | +$506.88 | +$416.23 | −$461.11 |
| Oct 15 | +$706.25 | +$506.88 | +$416.23 | −$461.11 |
| Oct 16 | +$905.33 | +$705.96 | +$657.85 | −$451.48 |
| Oct 17 | +$597.26 | +$397.39 | +$546.33 | −$472.01 |
| Oct 18 | +$520.36 | +$320.52 | +$498.84 | −$418.76 |
| Oct 19 | +$520.36 | +$320.52 | +$498.84 | −$418.76 |
| Oct 20 | +$417.31 | +$217.47 | +$395.79 | −$521.81 |
| Oct 21 | +$488.87 | +$289.78 | +$494.52 | −$191.28 |
| Oct 22 | +$488.87 | +$289.78 | +$494.52 | −$191.28 |
| Oct 23 | +$488.87 | +$289.78 | +$494.52 | −$191.28 |
| Oct 24 | +$522.12 | +$319.88 | +$532.23 | −$177.11 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$522.12 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 67% |
| 1 min | +$319.88 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 68% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$532.23 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 68% |
| 30 min | −$177.11 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 53% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$8.91
- Delay helped+$1,086
- Slippage−$222.12
- Fees (buys $296.59 · sells $25.76)−$322.35
- Follower PnL+$532.23
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 105 | +$161.10 | +1.7% |
| Crypto | 50 | +$371.13 | +27.9% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x40ee…949bKeeps 29% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7418…251fKeeps −32% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9d69…ab3aLeader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.