In backtest, only 6% of 0x40ee…949b's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
Only 6% of this trader's buys could be fully copied at a 5-minute delay, and another 12% only partly; the +$1.63 comes from the part you could copy. A copier who mirrored 0x40ee…949b's 69 buys across 69 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 29% of the leader's returns: +$1.63 against +$5.55 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $3.81, slippage $0.03 and fees $0.08. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $200.00 at once across 12 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 2 estimated: 0 high · 0 medium · 2 low · 55 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$28.40; 1 min: +$1.52; 5 min: +$1.63; 30 min: +$0.60. Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | +$0.10 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 21 | +$0.12 | $0.00 | $0.00 | $0.00 |
| Sep 22 | +$20.93 | +$0.23 | +$0.03 | $0.00 |
| Sep 23 | +$24.77 | +$0.78 | +$1.30 | $0.00 |
| Sep 24 | +$26.37 | +$1.05 | +$1.52 | $0.00 |
| Sep 25 | +$27.05 | +$1.30 | +$1.52 | $0.00 |
| Sep 26 | +$28.40 | +$1.52 | +$1.60 | +$0.60 |
| Sep 27 | +$28.40 | +$1.52 | +$1.63 | +$0.60 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$28.40 | 100%+ (Exactly 512.0%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 14% |
| 1 min | +$1.52 | 27.4% | 9% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$1.63 | 29.5% | 6% |
| 30 min | +$0.60 | 10.8% | 0% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$5.55
- Delay cost−$3.81
- Slippage−$0.03
- Fees (buys $0.08 · sells $0.00)−$0.08
- Follower PnL+$1.63
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 55 | +$0.34 | +0.1% |
| Weather | 10 | +$1.12 | +0.4% |
| Culture | 2 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Politics | 1 | $0.00 | 0.0% |
| Tech | 1 | +$0.17 | +0.2% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x7418…251fKeeps −32% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9d69…ab3aLeader lost money at this size
- 0xe787…5034Leader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.