In backtest, copying 0x5bfe…3258 keeps 3% of returns at a 5-minute delay
ProvisionalIncludes trades from the last ~40 minutes, so these results may still change. Computed Oct 26, 2026, 02:24 UTC.
A copier who mirrored 0x5bfe…3258's 4,866 buys across 346 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have kept only 3% of the leader's returns: +$592.94 against +$19,790 for the leader at the same size. Most of the edge is eaten before a follower can act: delay cost $11,593, slippage $1,423 and fees $6,181. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $73,949 at once across 2,850 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 1,417 estimated: 691 high · 573 medium · 153 low · 778 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: +$23,955; 1 min: +$17,040; 5 min: +$592.94; 30 min: +$14,820. Max drawdown −$20,089 (5 min, Oct 24). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 22 | +$10,499 | +$10,380 | +$11,873 | +$9,833 |
| Sep 23 | +$10,933 | +$10,331 | +$11,626 | +$9,140 |
| Sep 24 | +$12,523 | +$11,482 | +$13,464 | +$8,788 |
| Sep 25 | +$12,659 | +$11,432 | +$13,423 | +$8,858 |
| Sep 26 | +$14,553 | +$12,420 | +$14,089 | +$8,696 |
| Sep 27 | +$14,673 | +$12,839 | +$14,967 | +$8,336 |
| Sep 28 | +$11,013 | +$9,195 | +$11,482 | +$7,075 |
| Sep 29 | +$15,915 | +$11,685 | +$13,822 | +$9,217 |
| Sep 30 | +$18,858 | +$16,096 | +$17,670 | +$11,050 |
| Oct 1 | +$17,812 | +$15,021 | +$16,910 | +$10,406 |
| Oct 2 | +$12,915 | +$11,048 | +$18,768 | +$12,197 |
| Oct 3 | +$11,839 | +$9,907 | +$16,871 | +$11,845 |
| Oct 4 | +$10,700 | +$8,702 | +$16,062 | +$11,845 |
| Oct 5 | +$9,086 | +$6,891 | +$14,525 | +$12,059 |
| Oct 6 | +$8,343 | +$6,156 | +$13,997 | +$11,997 |
| Oct 7 | +$5,924 | +$3,655 | +$11,447 | +$13,349 |
| Oct 8 | +$6,782 | +$3,869 | +$11,649 | +$12,911 |
| Oct 9 | +$5,640 | +$1,113 | +$10,488 | +$11,807 |
| Oct 10 | +$3,860 | −$1,489 | +$8,861 | +$11,294 |
| Oct 11 | +$11,615 | +$5,303 | +$12,858 | +$10,577 |
| Oct 12 | +$11,494 | +$5,592 | +$13,166 | +$12,236 |
| Oct 13 | +$7,259 | +$1,562 | +$9,848 | +$8,299 |
| Oct 14 | +$4,440 | −$2,467 | +$5,865 | +$8,312 |
| Oct 15 | +$2,934 | −$3,974 | +$4,636 | +$8,337 |
| Oct 16 | +$2,769 | −$3,352 | +$6,354 | +$8,148 |
| Oct 17 | +$1,465 | −$4,731 | +$4,363 | +$14,511 |
| Oct 18 | +$3,191 | −$4,571 | +$4,168 | +$14,315 |
| Oct 19 | +$977.64 | −$6,736 | +$3,405 | +$14,315 |
| Oct 20 | +$3,562 | −$4,848 | +$2,550 | +$13,702 |
| Oct 21 | +$1,990 | −$7,116 | +$522.99 | +$13,194 |
| Oct 22 | +$2,202 | −$6,914 | +$634.92 | +$13,036 |
| Oct 23 | +$6,611 | −$2,242 | +$2,343 | +$12,796 |
| Oct 24 | +$24,413 | +$17,985 | +$3,609 | +$13,497 |
| Oct 25 | +$24,443 | +$17,467 | +$712.84 | +$15,077 |
| Oct 26 | +$23,955 | +$17,040 | +$592.94 | +$14,820 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | +$23,955 | 100%+ (Exactly 121.0%: the simulated copy did better than the leader) | 73% |
| 1 min | +$17,040 | 86.1% | 67% |
| 5 min (selected) | +$592.94 | 3.0% | 55% |
| 30 min | +$14,820 | 73.8% | 25% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$19,790
- Delay cost−$11,593
- Slippage−$1,423
- Fees (buys $6,180 · sells $1.05)−$6,181
- Follower PnL+$592.94
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 4,830 | +$2,042 | +0.8% |
| Politics | 36 | −$1,449 | −40.3% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x8f69…7df1Leader lost money at this size
- 0x0f6f…d977Leader lost money at this size
- 0x9a3f…914aKeeps 11% at a 5-minute delay
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.