0x8f69…7df1 lost money; a simulated copy at a 5-minute delay lost $7,503
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x8f69…7df1's 1,902 buys across 315 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$7,503. The leader lost $2,613 at the same size, so there were no returns to keep: delay cost $1,661, slippage $194.91 and fees $3,034. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $11,008 at once across 1,327 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 592 estimated: 138 high · 340 medium · 114 low · 178 thin How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$3,853; 1 min: −$5,650; 5 min: −$7,503; 30 min: −$11,969. Max drawdown −$13,672 (5 min, Oct 18). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 21 | −$30.64 | −$15.39 | −$720.63 | −$1,355 |
| Sep 22 | +$532.98 | +$458.03 | +$105.07 | −$445.84 |
| Sep 23 | −$4,979 | −$5,055 | −$5,094 | −$6,878 |
| Sep 24 | −$5,472 | −$5,546 | −$5,692 | −$7,462 |
| Sep 25 | −$7,738 | −$7,689 | −$8,782 | −$11,418 |
| Sep 26 | −$8,616 | −$8,925 | −$10,049 | −$12,307 |
| Sep 27 | −$8,554 | −$8,858 | −$9,749 | −$11,114 |
| Sep 28 | −$9,475 | −$9,778 | −$10,673 | −$11,935 |
| Sep 29 | −$9,616 | −$10,053 | −$11,015 | −$11,929 |
| Sep 30 | −$9,479 | −$9,919 | −$10,918 | −$11,842 |
| Oct 1 | −$9,141 | −$9,602 | −$10,713 | −$11,797 |
| Oct 2 | −$8,614 | −$9,080 | −$9,918 | −$11,512 |
| Oct 3 | −$5,565 | −$6,163 | −$6,822 | −$9,571 |
| Oct 4 | −$8,905 | −$9,488 | −$9,865 | −$12,139 |
| Oct 5 | −$8,672 | −$9,307 | −$9,552 | −$12,003 |
| Oct 6 | −$9,002 | −$9,745 | −$10,042 | −$12,471 |
| Oct 7 | −$9,002 | −$9,745 | −$10,042 | −$12,471 |
| Oct 8 | −$9,082 | −$9,827 | −$10,221 | −$12,719 |
| Oct 9 | −$7,351 | −$8,228 | −$8,515 | −$12,638 |
| Oct 10 | −$8,410 | −$9,190 | −$9,511 | −$13,987 |
| Oct 11 | −$6,809 | −$7,726 | −$8,111 | −$13,132 |
| Oct 12 | −$6,863 | −$7,801 | −$8,298 | −$13,174 |
| Oct 13 | −$6,313 | −$7,253 | −$7,901 | −$13,174 |
| Oct 14 | −$6,308 | −$7,280 | −$7,929 | −$13,182 |
| Oct 15 | −$8,469 | −$9,482 | −$10,131 | −$15,386 |
| Oct 16 | −$7,783 | −$8,849 | −$9,450 | −$14,762 |
| Oct 17 | −$9,394 | −$10,528 | −$11,409 | −$16,835 |
| Oct 18 | −$10,919 | −$11,974 | −$12,913 | −$17,257 |
| Oct 19 | −$10,186 | −$11,339 | −$12,292 | −$17,669 |
| Oct 20 | −$9,327 | −$10,547 | −$11,504 | −$17,070 |
| Oct 21 | −$7,655 | −$9,054 | −$10,405 | −$16,668 |
| Oct 22 | −$7,436 | −$8,838 | −$10,423 | −$17,153 |
| Oct 23 | −$8,207 | −$9,619 | −$11,460 | −$18,002 |
| Oct 24 | −$1,881 | −$3,711 | −$5,632 | −$10,468 |
| Oct 25 | −$3,853 | −$5,650 | −$7,503 | −$11,969 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$3,853 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 61% |
| 1 min | −$5,650 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 59% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$7,503 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 58% |
| 30 min | −$11,969 | n/a (The leader lost money at this size, so there were no returns to keep) | 54% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size−$2,613
- Delay cost−$1,661
- Slippage−$194.91
- Fees (buys $2,657 · sells $377.03)−$3,034
- Follower PnL−$7,503
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 1,667 | −$7,629 | −6.6% |
| Geopolitics | 175 | +$82.61 | +4.3% |
| Politics | 60 | +$43.56 | +9.1% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0f6f…d977Leader lost money at this size
- 0x9a3f…914aKeeps 11% at a 5-minute delay
- 0xa2f4…6d95Leader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.