In backtest, copying 0x6211…b89e turns a profit into a loss at a 5-minute delay
Provisional
A copier who mirrored 0x6211…b89e's 54 buys across 28 markets with a 5-minute delay and $100 per trade would have ended at −$256.46, while the leader made +$334.98 at the same size. At a 5-minute delay a follower can't keep up: delay cost $505.57, slippage helped by +$9.08 and fees $94.95 outweigh whatever edge the leader had. In the backtest, this simulated copy would have tied up to $810.00 at once across 46 positions.
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Key numbers
The headline numbers only count what real trades in the 10 minutes after the delay prove. “Including estimates” also counts the unproven part of a buy when order-book or trading-volume evidence says it was fillable, at an estimated price. Treat it as an upper view, not a promise. 20 estimated: 2 high · 18 medium · 0 low How we estimate
Cumulative PnL across all copied positions
Final values: 0 min: −$933.60; 1 min: −$869.28; 5 min: −$256.46; 30 min: −$666.83. Max drawdown −$1,241 (5 min, Oct 4). Hover or use the arrow keys to read values.
Chart data by day
| Day (UTC) | 0 min | 1 min | 5 min | 30 min |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sep 20 | +$82.89 | +$82.89 | +$82.89 | +$82.89 |
| Sep 21 | +$119.53 | +$112.68 | +$153.31 | +$111.20 |
| Sep 22 | +$119.53 | +$112.68 | +$153.31 | +$111.20 |
| Sep 23 | +$119.53 | +$112.68 | +$153.31 | +$111.20 |
| Sep 24 | −$187.52 | −$194.37 | −$153.74 | −$11.55 |
| Sep 25 | −$289.92 | −$296.77 | −$256.14 | −$113.35 |
| Sep 26 | −$289.92 | −$296.77 | −$256.14 | −$113.35 |
| Sep 27 | +$27.39 | +$108.11 | +$118.69 | +$322.80 |
| Sep 28 | +$281.98 | +$354.92 | +$404.59 | +$322.80 |
| Sep 29 | +$281.98 | +$354.92 | +$404.59 | +$322.80 |
| Sep 30 | +$281.98 | +$354.92 | +$404.59 | +$322.80 |
| Oct 1 | +$281.98 | +$354.92 | +$404.59 | +$322.80 |
| Oct 2 | +$281.98 | +$354.92 | +$404.59 | +$322.80 |
| Oct 3 | +$281.98 | +$354.92 | +$404.59 | +$322.80 |
| Oct 4 | −$785.79 | −$748.82 | −$395.59 | −$653.82 |
| Oct 5 | −$728.81 | −$664.48 | −$206.97 | −$652.16 |
| Oct 6 | −$728.81 | −$664.48 | −$206.97 | −$652.16 |
| Oct 7 | −$728.81 | −$664.48 | −$206.97 | −$652.16 |
| Oct 8 | −$728.81 | −$664.48 | −$206.97 | −$652.16 |
| Oct 9 | −$728.81 | −$664.48 | −$206.97 | −$652.16 |
| Oct 10 | −$728.81 | −$664.48 | −$206.97 | −$652.16 |
| Oct 11 | −$933.60 | −$869.28 | −$256.46 | −$666.83 |
Every delay side by side
| Delay | Follower PnL | Kept | Filled |
|---|---|---|---|
| 0 min | −$933.60 | −279% | 65% |
| 1 min | −$869.28 | −260% | 69% |
| 5 min (selected) | −$256.46 | −76.6% | 63% |
| 30 min | −$666.83 | −199% | 41% |
Where the returns go
- Leader PnL at your size+$334.98
- Delay cost−$505.57
- Slippage helped+$9.08
- Fees (buys $94.95 · sells $0.00)−$94.95
- Follower PnL−$256.46
Leader PnL is scaled to your per-trade size. Delay cost is the price move between the leader's fill and yours; slippage is walking the book to fill your size; fees use the 2026 fee schedule. Methodology.
By category
| Category | Trades | Follower PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sports | 54 | −$256.46 | −6.7% |
Trades
Each leader buy and the copy we simulated at the selected delay. Open “Details” to see the market fills behind the copy price.
How fills are simulated: a copy can only fill against real taker buys of the same outcome within 10 minutes after the delay, so the headline numbers are conservative. Fill basis adds a second opinion: where no trade proved a fill, order-book or volume evidence may say the size was still fillable (an estimate, never in the headline). Methodology.
Filled whole order · Partial (NN%) part of it · No buyers nobody bought in the window — not counted · Data not in yet too recent to evaluate
| Date | Market | Leader price | Copy price | Fill | Fill basis | Follower PnL | Details |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Trades load from the live API when this section is visible. | |||||||
More Sports traders
- 0x74b7…8b0bBeat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0xf28e…cab2Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x5dee…30b1Beat the leader at a 5-minute delay
- 0x9aeb…2729Leader lost money at this size
- 0xcb89…a2e8Keeps −1115% at a 5-minute delay
- 0x0a77…9d74Leader lost money at this size
See the full Sports copyability board, read the methodology, or learn how slippage and fees eat into copied returns.
This is a simulation built from historical on-chain fills; it is not a record of real copy trades. Past results don't predict future results. Only the wallet address and its public Polymarket name are shown.