Polymarket 地缘政治类交易员模拟跟单榜（晚 5 分钟跟单）
按跟单者能保留多少收益排序，而不是按交易员自己赚了多少。每位交易员的买入都按跟单延迟、以当时真实能买到的价格重放，并扣除滑点和手续费。回测评分（0–100）综合了收益保留率、成交率和样本量。
跟单延迟
样本外窗口
地缘政治类盈亏榜前 20 名中有 5 人，晚 5 分钟跟单会让跟单者亏钱。
| 排名 | 交易员 | 评分 | 收益保留率 | 跟单收益率 | 样本外收益率（7 天） | 交易员盈亏 | 买入笔数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0xe234…304a | 80 | 100%+ (准确值 208.8%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +19.6% | −7.9% | +$3,340 | 1,694 |
| 2 | 0xdb40…3612 | 80 | 100%+ (准确值 133.5%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +11.2% | +10.3% | +$668.53 | 366 |
| 3 | 0xff1e…5e2d | 79 | 100%+ (准确值 372.8%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +3.8% | +8.1% | +$144.80 | 769 |
| 4 | 0x6114…cff0 | 77 | 100%+ (准确值 147.1%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +5.1% | +20.9% | +$161.06 | 419 |
| 5 | 0x88e2…7489 | 77 | 100%+ (准确值 105.4%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +5.3% | −37.5% | +$194.75 | 383 |
| 6 | 0xd46b…5dab | 76 | 100%+ (准确值 118.5%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +1.8% | −19.1% | +$27.01 | 131 |
| 7 | 0x0b65…293e | 73 | 94.7% | +12.2% | +12.6% | +$434.15 | 465 |
| 8 | 0x33e2…3a1b | 72 | 80.5% | +11.6% | +1.3% | +$5,202 | 998 |
| 9 | 0xd950…ad1b | 65 | 77.8% | +2.0% | −11.4% | +$569.09 | 1,477 |
| 10 | 0xdf17…97d1 | 65 | 76.2% | +21.5% | +1.8% | +$2.3万 | 3,541 |
| 11 | 0x401e…6fc9 | 53 | 51.6% | +0.3% | +4.4% | +$346.28 | 1,848 |
| 12 | 0xf67f…31cf | 50 | 51.9% | +15.6% | +3.1% | +$458.14 | 41 |
| 13 | 0x6bab…0fe5 | 48 | 50.3% | +16.5% | +0.4% | +$1,097 | 253 |
| 14 | 0x77c3…00c8 | 46 | 42.6% | +2.8% | +24.0% | +$563.99 | 327 |
| 15 | 0x614d…1546 | 43 | 36.2% | +9.1% | +71.6% | +$7,729 | 1,044 |
| 16 | 0x60a9…5a71 | 41 | 37.9% | +9.8% | +4.4% | +$3,032 | 703 |
| 17 | 0xeca0…e8f8 | 40 | 35.5% | +5.9% | −10.0% | +$3,835 | 1,378 |
| 18 | 0x62cf…5826 | 35 | 27.9% | +16.4% | −3.6% | +$4,995 | 546 |
| 19 | 0xcdb1…276c | 34 | 28.2% | +3.6% | −3.6% | +$1,180 | 1,051 |
| 20 | 0xf01a…f231 | 34 | 26.7% | +5.4% | +32.8% | +$710.86 | 229 |
| 21 | 0x8bc8…97dc | 27 | 16.6% | +0.2% | −0.3% | +$76.96 | 449 |
| 22 | 0x2e0b…8070 | 26 | 14.8% | +1.2% | +0.5% | +$175.66 | 206 |
| 23 | 0xf0d5…c665 | 26 | 9.8% | +9.4% | +15.5% | +$1.4万 | 667 |
| 24 | 0x2d99…4ca3 | 26 | 8.0% | +1.2% | −10.0% | +$1,339 | 297 |
| 25 | 0x606f…1083 | 25 | 11.7% | +1.7% | +1.9% | +$346.44 | 101 |
| 26 | 0xcb89…a2e8 | 25 | −297% | −2.4% | −0.7% | +$127.46 | 400 |
| 27 | 0x836f…906e | 23 | 12.2% | +3.3% | +7.8% | +$667.79 | 576 |
| 28 | 0x9351…9e4d | 22 | 10.2% | +0.6% | 0.0% | +$131.36 | 235 |
| 29 | 0xd1c7…1d2b | 22 | 8.9% | +0.2% | 0.0% | +$88.77 | 680 |
| 30 | 0x9a3f…914a | 22 | −10.5% | −1.4% | +8.6% | +$9,836 | 2,489 |
| 31 | 0x35bb…009b | 21 | −4.8% | −0.2% | +16.7% | +$1,778 | 1,380 |
| 32 | 0x6085…4219 | 21 | −508% | −27.8% | −9.5% | +$941.58 | 627 |
| 33 | 0x6ffb…a834 | 21 | −694% | −17.5% | −29.9% | +$195.83 | 289 |
| 34 | 0xdc4b…dbca | 20 | 10.4% | +0.4% | +1.0% | +$21.21 | 63 |
| 35 | 0xac4a…bf1e | 20 | −193% | −12.5% | +2.3% | +$5,895 | 3,473 |
| 36 | 0xb37a…f1b1 | 19 | −25.6% | −12.3% | −10.7% | +$4,990 | 542 |
| 37 | 0xd5cc…dea4 | 18 | 3.1% | +3.1% | +13.1% | +$1,696 | 89 |
| 38 | 0x6d9f…9790 | 18 | −34.4% | −7.7% | +5.9% | +$2,295 | 651 |
| 39 | 0xff7c…b233 | 17 | −17.0% | −3.0% | −7.5% | +$1,437 | 841 |
| 40 | 0xd104…acef | 17 | −101% | −16.8% | +6.3% | +$1,194 | 727 |
| 41 | 0x2aa2…daf6 | 16 | 4.8% | +22.4% | +46.0% | +$2,669 | 74 |
| 42 | 0x33ab…9523 | 16 | 1.7% | +0.1% | +7.0% | +$84.38 | 1,336 |
| 43 | 0x6049…f14f | 16 | 1.1% | +0.1% | +3.6% | +$85.02 | 1,341 |
| 44 | 0xc97b…47e5 | 16 | −27.4% | −2.3% | +0.3% | +$656.53 | 1,115 |
| 45 | 0x6861…bb2d | 16 | −60.8% | −25.2% | −21.9% | +$556.79 | 115 |
| 46 | 0xd25b…9f3d | 16 | −400% | −1.6% | −2.1% | +$41.19 | 2,814 |
| 47 | 0x4ad6…464c | 15 | −19.6% | −21.0% | −23.1% | +$1,430 | 948 |
| 48 | 0x165e…f5aa | 13 | −1.1% | −3.0% | +35.3% | +$793.11 | 96 |
| 49 | 0xb26c…0eb0 | 12 | −80.8% | −23.9% | +19.7% | +$139.26 | 36 |
怎么看这个榜单
- 收益保留率：跟单者盈亏除以交易员在同等每笔金额下的盈亏。超过 100% 说明模拟跟单结果好于交易员；“不适用”表示交易员本身亏损，没有收益可保留。
- 样本外收益率：排名区间之后 7 天内的模拟跟单收益率，用来检验排名在之后是否还成立。为什么这很重要。
- 交易员盈亏只作参考，不影响排名。
其他榜单
过往结果不代表未来表现。本榜单是模拟跟单结果的排序，不是跟单推荐。交易员只以地址和 Polymarket 公开昵称标识。