Polymarket 政治类交易员模拟跟单榜（晚 5 分钟跟单）
按跟单者能保留多少收益排序，而不是按交易员自己赚了多少。每位交易员的买入都按跟单延迟、以当时真实能买到的价格重放，并扣除滑点和手续费。回测评分（0–100）综合了收益保留率、成交率和样本量。
跟单延迟
样本外窗口
政治类盈亏榜前 20 名中有 5 人，晚 5 分钟跟单会让跟单者亏钱。
| 排名 | 交易员 | 评分 | 收益保留率 | 跟单收益率 | 样本外收益率（7 天） | 交易员盈亏 | 买入笔数 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0x24c8…23e1 | 83 | 100%+ (准确值 139.8%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +66.3% | +31.1% | +$1.9万 | 1,126 |
| 2 | 0x55b4…80ea | 83 | 99.5% | +29.3% | +56.8% | +$567.38 | 34 |
| 3 | 0xe234…304a | 80 | 100%+ (准确值 208.8%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +19.6% | −7.9% | +$3,340 | 1,694 |
| 4 | 0xdb40…3612 | 80 | 100%+ (准确值 133.5%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +11.2% | +10.3% | +$668.53 | 366 |
| 5 | 0xff1e…5e2d | 79 | 100%+ (准确值 372.8%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +3.8% | +8.1% | +$144.80 | 769 |
| 6 | 0x4488…e319 | 79 | 98.7% | +62.1% | +27.9% | +$2.4万 | 1,883 |
| 7 | 0x58b3…653c | 78 | 100%+ (准确值 268.3%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +39.0% | +29.9% | +$7,452 | 3,432 |
| 8 | 0x629b…995a | 78 | 100%+ (准确值 129.1%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +66.1% | +66.1% | +$1.6万 | 2,258 |
| 9 | 0xd8d5…8935 | 78 | 100%+ (准确值 106.9%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +9.2% | +21.9% | +$3,069 | 2,212 |
| 10 | 0x6114…cff0 | 77 | 100%+ (准确值 147.1%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +5.1% | +20.9% | +$161.06 | 419 |
| 11 | 0x690b…bd2c | 77 | 100%+ (准确值 118.1%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +5.9% | +6.7% | +$67.27 | 43 |
| 12 | 0x88e2…7489 | 77 | 100%+ (准确值 105.4%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +5.3% | −37.5% | +$194.75 | 383 |
| 13 | 0x3c91…9af7 | 77 | 95.2% | +8.2% | +3.0% | +$348.89 | 156 |
| 14 | 0xd46b…5dab | 76 | 100%+ (准确值 118.5%：模拟跟单结果好于交易员) | +1.8% | −19.1% | +$27.01 | 131 |
| 15 | 0x33e2…3a1b | 72 | 80.5% | +11.6% | +1.3% | +$5,202 | 998 |
| 16 | 0x0130…fb49 | 68 | 84.8% | +5.8% | −9.5% | +$1,632 | 1,835 |
| 17 | 0x0869…14f1 | 68 | 78.8% | +20.4% | 0.0% | +$1,413 | 174 |
| 18 | 0xfb9d…d78e | 66 | 85.9% | +88.7% | −43.1% | +$560.82 | 100 |
| 19 | 0x0845…6b6f | 66 | 78.0% | +13.9% | −16.3% | +$3,661 | 907 |
| 20 | 0xd950…ad1b | 65 | 77.8% | +2.0% | −11.4% | +$569.09 | 1,477 |
| 21 | 0xdf17…97d1 | 65 | 76.2% | +21.5% | +1.8% | +$2.3万 | 3,541 |
| 22 | 0xbf96…9942 | 53 | 56.8% | +29.0% | −5.9% | +$2,741 | 273 |
| 23 | 0x401e…6fc9 | 53 | 51.6% | +0.3% | +4.4% | +$346.28 | 1,848 |
| 24 | 0x23d8…0288 | 52 | 55.2% | +106% | +214% | +$5.6万 | 1,600 |
| 25 | 0x9352…2227 | 51 | 51.2% | +18.7% | −4.5% | +$4,348 | 460 |
| 26 | 0xf67f…31cf | 50 | 51.9% | +15.6% | +3.1% | +$458.14 | 41 |
| 27 | 0x5cd5…ac33 | 50 | 50.7% | +2.3% | +0.2% | +$1,569 | 1,756 |
| 28 | 0x6bab…0fe5 | 48 | 50.3% | +16.5% | +0.4% | +$1,097 | 253 |
| 29 | 0x7b02…4991 | 47 | 52.3% | +88.8% | −0.5% | +$4,504 | 559 |
| 30 | 0xab19…4876 | 46 | 45.5% | +8.1% | +3.8% | +$1,207 | 379 |
| 31 | 0x77c3…00c8 | 46 | 42.6% | +2.8% | +24.0% | +$563.99 | 327 |
| 32 | 0x6575…b198 | 45 | 40.1% | +73.9% | +109% | +$2.3万 | 486 |
| 33 | 0x54b5…4b31 | 43 | 36.3% | +7.6% | −8.8% | +$6,624 | 1,201 |
| 34 | 0x614d…1546 | 43 | 36.2% | +9.1% | +71.6% | +$7,729 | 1,044 |
| 35 | 0x60a9…5a71 | 41 | 37.9% | +9.8% | +4.4% | +$3,032 | 703 |
| 36 | 0x77fb…266c | 40 | 40.9% | +8.0% | −0.6% | +$1,032 | 1,007 |
| 37 | 0xeca0…e8f8 | 40 | 35.5% | +5.9% | −10.0% | +$3,835 | 1,378 |
| 38 | 0xc757…ccfc | 40 | 30.0% | +0.6% | +4.4% | +$249.70 | 408 |
| 39 | 0x2c39…56dc | 38 | 32.5% | +3.3% | −14.8% | +$610.31 | 359 |
| 40 | 0x62cf…5826 | 35 | 27.9% | +16.4% | −3.6% | +$4,995 | 546 |
| 41 | 0xa24d…7857 | 29 | 22.0% | +3.2% | −0.4% | +$1,186 | 664 |
| 42 | 0x052f…53fb | 29 | 20.5% | +1.5% | −1.3% | +$98.54 | 211 |
| 43 | 0xdef6…f69a | 29 | 12.7% | +24.0% | −92.0% | +$8,610 | 152 |
| 44 | 0x8bc8…97dc | 27 | 16.6% | +0.2% | −0.3% | +$76.96 | 449 |
| 45 | 0xb26f…5b27 | 27 | 14.9% | +0.4% | −62.2% | +$121.21 | 344 |
| 46 | 0x2e0b…8070 | 26 | 14.8% | +1.2% | +0.5% | +$175.66 | 206 |
| 47 | 0xf0d5…c665 | 26 | 9.8% | +9.4% | +15.5% | +$1.4万 | 667 |
| 48 | 0x2d99…4ca3 | 26 | 8.0% | +1.2% | −10.0% | +$1,339 | 297 |
| 49 | 0x606f…1083 | 25 | 11.7% | +1.7% | +1.9% | +$346.44 | 101 |
| 50 | 0x2a01…6397 | 25 | 10.3% | +3.1% | +2.0% | +$4,506 | 968 |
怎么看这个榜单
- 收益保留率：跟单者盈亏除以交易员在同等每笔金额下的盈亏。超过 100% 说明模拟跟单结果好于交易员；“不适用”表示交易员本身亏损，没有收益可保留。
- 样本外收益率：排名区间之后 7 天内的模拟跟单收益率，用来检验排名在之后是否还成立。为什么这很重要。
- 交易员盈亏只作参考，不影响排名。
其他榜单
过往结果不代表未来表现。本榜单是模拟跟单结果的排序，不是跟单推荐。交易员只以地址和 Polymarket 公开昵称标识。